Who will win Butler vs UT Martin?
The model gives Butler a 97% chance to beat UT Martin, with a projected score of Butler 84, UT Martin 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Butler | |||||
| JacksonG · 29 min | 12.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 15+ 35% | |
| ValeroG · 27 min | 11.9 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 10+ 62% | |
| SingerG · 28 min | 10.2 | 3.7 | 8.6 | 10+ 50% | |
| JacksonG · 23 min | 10.0 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 10+ 48% | |
 UT Martin | |||||
| SmithG · 26 min | 9.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 10+ 43% | |
| SimsG · 20 min | 8.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 38% | |
| EspeletF · 20 min | 7.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 5+ 67% | |
| MiddletonG · 18 min | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tamar Singer: Butler 94%UT Martin 6%
The white mark is the call with her: Butler 97%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Butler without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butler | ||||
| Tamar Singer | 3.6 | 94% | −3 | 82–63 |
| Saniya Jackson | 2.7 | 95% | −2 | 83–62 |
| Nevaeh Jackson | 2.6 | 95% | −2 | 83–62 |
| Lili Krasovec | 2.3 | 96% | −1 | 83–62 |
Change is in Butler's win chance, in points. Scores read Butler, then UT Martin. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Butler 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 68-61vs N Dakota St
- Nov 8W 74-42at C Michigan
- Nov 5W 104-57vs Lipscomb
- Nov 2W 108-71vs Tennessee Tech
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 88.5 and allowing 57.8
UT Martin 2-2WWLL
- Nov 12L 59-103at Missouri
- Nov 8L 68-114vs Mississippi St
- Nov 5W 105-41vs Christian Brothers
- Nov 2W 90-89vs E Kentucky
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 80.5 and allowing 86.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Butler | UT Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.4 65th | 89.4 187th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 85.1 57th | 103.9 342nd |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 84th | 73.3 76th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.2% 42nd | 45.1% 200th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.7% 73rd | 51.8% 363rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 123rd | 22.7% 111th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.8% 137th | 29.5% 333rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 182nd | 0.20 233rd |
The widest gap: Butler's offense (65th) against UT Martin's defense (342nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Butler 41, UT Martin 28
- First-half margin
- Butler by 13.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.6
- Projected second half
- Butler 43, UT Martin 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Butler, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 37.8 scored, 24.8 allowed
- UT Martin, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 40.2 scored, 43.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Butler
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevaeh JacksonG | 29 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Tamar SingerG | 28 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 8.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 48% · 9+ ast 49% | |||||
| Judit ValeroG | 27 | 11.9 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Saniya JacksonG | 23 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Taya EllisF | 19 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Lili KrasovecF | 19 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Karina BystryG | 17 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Laniah WillsG | 15 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
UT Martin
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia SmithG | 26 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Tyler JonesG | 24 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Raven SimsG | 20 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 50% to play · 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Lily EspeletF | 20 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Sidni MiddletonG | 18 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Maddie PenneyG | 18 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Sophie Chard PeloquinG | 17 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Kennedy HortonF | 16 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 53% | |||||
Missed the last game: Raven Sims (23 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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