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Probable Stats / Women's / Friday, November 20

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UT Martin at S Illinois

Women's · Friday, November 20, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Banterra Center. UT Martin our rank 271 · 2-2; S Illinois our rank 300 · 0-3.

Who will win UT Martin vs S Illinois?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Southern Illinois a 61% chance to beat UT Martin, with a projected score of S Illinois 73, UT Martin 70.

To winS Illinois 61%UT Martin 39%
Projected score70–73UT Martin, then S Illinois
Margin3.5S Illinois · no line posted
Total143.0no line posted
First half33–35S Illinois ahead 56%
UT Martin by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20S Illinois by 30Model: S Illinois by 3.5UT Martin by 30by 10by 10S Illinois by 30Model: S Illinois by 3.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
S Illinois
CooperG · 35 min13.85.33.215+ 42%
BakerG · 31 min10.44.01.010+ 51%
McClineG · 19 min10.02.41.510+ 48%
NelsonG · 32 min7.45.04.15+ 68%
UT Martin
SmithG · 28 min11.13.73.010+ 56%
SimsG · 21 min10.14.31.010+ 49%
EspeletF · 20 min8.13.71.110+ 34%
JonesG · 24 min6.82.31.85+ 63%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    UT Martin 2-2WWLL

    1. Nov 12L 59-103at Missouri
    2. Nov 8L 68-114vs Mississippi St
    3. Nov 5W 105-41vs Christian Brothers
    4. Nov 2W 90-89vs E Kentucky
    Last 4
    2–2, scoring 80.5 and allowing 86.8

    S Illinois 0-3LLL

    1. Nov 12L 57-71at E Kentucky
    2. Nov 6L 55-96at Indiana
    3. Nov 3L 70-75vs Illinois Springfield
    Last 3
    0–3, scoring 60.7 and allowing 80.7

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    UT MartinS Illinois
    Points scored per 100 possessions89.4 187th83.5 278th
    Points allowed per 100103.9 342nd100.5 308th
    Possessions a game73.3 76th73.3 76th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)45.1% 200th44.2% 267th
    Opponents' shooting51.8% 363rd48.1% 318th
    Turnovers, share of possessions22.7% 111th20.9% 16th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses29.5% 333rd30.9% 287th
    Free throws per shot0.20 233rd0.17 351st

    The widest gap: UT Martin's offense (187th) against S Illinois's defense (308th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    UT Martin 33, S Illinois 35
    First-half margin
    S Illinois by 2.0
    First-half points, both teams
    67.8
    Projected second half
    UT Martin 37, S Illinois 38
    Second-half points, both teams
    75.2
    Tied at the half
    4%
    UT Martin, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 4 · 40.2 scored, 43.2 allowed
    S Illinois, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 3 · 29.7 scored, 42.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    UT Martin

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Olivia SmithG2811.13.73.00.7
    10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 48%
    Tyler JonesG246.82.31.80.5
    5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 50%
    Raven SimsG2110.14.31.00.5
    50% to play · 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 39%
    Lily EspeletF208.13.71.10.7
    10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 46%
    Sidni MiddletonG186.62.41.70.5
    5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 47%
    Maddie PenneyG186.12.41.40.8
    5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 51%
    Sophie Chard PeloquinG174.02.40.90.5
    5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 38%
    Kennedy HortonF153.83.10.20.1
    5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 55%

    Missed the last game: Raven Sims (23 min a game).

    S Illinois

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Kayla CooperG3513.85.33.21.4
    15+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 59%
    Tkiyah NelsonG327.45.04.10.1
    5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 56%
    Braxcynn BakerG3110.44.01.02.2
    10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 57%
    Kynnedi DavisG287.12.12.00.5
    5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 57%
    Shakara McClineG1910.02.41.51.4
    10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 42%
    Yaiza Paredes DiazF165.13.60.90.1
    5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 23%
    Mia GainesC122.83.20.30.0
    5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 57%
    Carmen MoralesC112.42.50.10.0
    5+ pts 19% · 3+ reb 43%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 20

    All games
    1. 6 PMprojected 68-67UMass at Boston College, women's: game page
    2. 7 PMprojected 67-68G Washington at Howard, women's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 63-59Miami OH at S Indiana, women's: game page
    4. 8 PMprojected 69-71CA Baptist at UC Davis, women's: game page
    5. 8:30 PMprojected 68-64Harvard at Colorado St, women's: game page
    6. 11 PMprojected 69-82Baylor vs USC, women's: game page
    UT Martin next: vs Butler, Sun, Nov 15 · 3%S Illinois next: vs E Illinois, Tue, Nov 17 · 61%UT Martin: schedule and oddsS Illinois: schedule and odds