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Probable Stats / Women's / Tuesday, November 17

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E Illinois at S Illinois

Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Banterra Center. E Illinois our rank 296 · 0-4; S Illinois our rank 300 · 0-3.

Who will win E Illinois vs S Illinois?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Southern Illinois a 61% chance to beat Eastern Illinois, with a projected score of S Illinois 66, E Illinois 63.

To winS Illinois 61%E Illinois 39%
Projected score63–66E Illinois, then S Illinois
Margin3.5S Illinois · no line posted
Total129.4no line posted
First half30–32S Illinois ahead 57%
E Illinois by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20S Illinois by 30Model: S Illinois by 3.5E Illinois by 30by 10by 10S Illinois by 30Model: S Illinois by 3.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
S Illinois
CooperG · 35 min13.15.13.015+ 37%
BakerG · 31 min9.83.80.910+ 47%
McClineG · 19 min9.42.31.410+ 44%
NelsonG · 32 min7.04.73.85+ 65%
E Illinois
StollerG · 32 min12.15.13.110+ 63%
BohanonG · 29 min9.64.61.110+ 45%
DickmanF · 34 min9.54.91.910+ 44%
GladG · 32 min7.94.31.510+ 32%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    E Illinois 0-4LLLL

    1. Nov 11L 58-64at Saint Louis
    2. Nov 8L 61-77at Iowa State
    3. Nov 5L 39-80at Iowa
    4. Nov 3L 54-76at Drake
    Last 4
    0–4, scoring 53.0 and allowing 74.2

    S Illinois 0-3LLL

    1. Nov 12L 57-71at E Kentucky
    2. Nov 6L 55-96at Indiana
    3. Nov 3L 70-75vs Illinois Springfield
    Last 3
    0–3, scoring 60.7 and allowing 80.7

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    E IllinoisS Illinois
    Points scored per 100 possessions82.0 296th83.5 278th
    Points allowed per 10098.6 264th100.5 308th
    Possessions a game71.0 285th73.3 76th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)45.9% 144th44.2% 267th
    Opponents' shooting44.0% 88th48.1% 318th
    Turnovers, share of possessions25.7% 315th20.9% 16th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.0% 314th30.9% 287th
    Free throws per shot0.22 120th0.17 351st

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    E Illinois 30, S Illinois 32
    First-half margin
    S Illinois by 2.0
    First-half points, both teams
    61.4
    Projected second half
    E Illinois 33, S Illinois 35
    Second-half points, both teams
    68.1
    Tied at the half
    4%
    E Illinois, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 4 · 24.2 scored, 37.2 allowed
    S Illinois, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 3 · 29.7 scored, 42.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    E Illinois

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Nevaeh DickmanF349.54.91.90.1
    10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 54%
    Clara GladG327.94.31.51.3
    10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 43%
    Ava StollerG3212.15.13.11.0
    10+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 56%
    Janyah BohanonG299.64.61.10.1
    10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 28%
    Abbie BoutilierC257.66.41.10.0
    5+ pts 70% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 28%
    Nyah HardyG166.71.50.61.0
    5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 59%
    Meioshe MasonC144.13.71.20.0
    5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 34%
    Alahnna SimpsonG112.11.20.60.2
    5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 15%

    S Illinois

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Kayla CooperG3513.15.13.01.3
    15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 55%
    Tkiyah NelsonG327.04.73.80.1
    5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 51%
    Braxcynn BakerG319.83.80.92.1
    10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 55%
    Kynnedi DavisG286.72.01.90.5
    5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 54%
    Shakara McClineG199.42.31.41.3
    10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 39%
    Yaiza Paredes DiazF164.83.50.80.1
    5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 21%
    Mia GainesC122.63.10.30.0
    5+ pts 21% · 3+ reb 54%
    Carmen MoralesC112.22.40.10.0
    5+ pts 17% · 3+ reb 40%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Tue, Nov 17

    All games
    1. 5 PMprojected 64-68Army at UMass, women's: game page
    2. 6 PMprojected 70-69Temple at G Washington, women's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 58-62Seton Hall at Auburn, women's: game page
    4. 7:30 PMprojected 63-77Marquette at Wisconsin, women's: game page
    5. 9:30 PMprojected 63-66Rice at UNLV, women's: game page
    6. 10:30 PMprojected 67-61Washington at Washington St, women's: game page
    E Illinois next: vs Evansville, Sat, Nov 14 · 72%S Illinois next: vs UT Martin, Fri, Nov 20 · 61%E Illinois: schedule and oddsS Illinois: schedule and odds