N Kentucky at E Kentucky
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Baptist Health Arena. N Kentucky our rank 270 · 2-2; E Kentucky our rank 172 · 4-1.
Who will win N Kentucky vs E Kentucky?
The model gives Eastern Kentucky a 86% chance to beat Northern Kentucky, with a projected score of E Kentucky 72, N Kentucky 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Kentucky | |||||
| WoodsG · 31 min | 11.5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 10+ 59% | |
| Lewis-WilliamsG · 29 min | 11.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 10+ 57% | |
| FreihoferG · 33 min | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 54% | |
| UedaG · 30 min | 10.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 10+ 48% | |
| N Kentucky | |||||
| CastelliG · 28 min | 9.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 10+ 44% | |
| LaytonG · 28 min | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 42% | |
| HubertG · 27 min | 7.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 10+ 32% | |
| BasaranF · 28 min | 6.3 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Nicole Fritea: N Kentucky 17%E Kentucky 83%
The white mark is the call with her: E Kentucky 86%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | E Kentucky without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Kentucky | ||||
| Nicole Fritea | 1.7 | 83% | −3 | 60–71 |
| Liz Freihofer | 1.5 | 83% | −3 | 60–72 |
| Kailani Lindsey | 1.3 | 84% | −2 | 60–72 |
| Kenleigh Woods | 0.9 | 84% | −2 | 59–72 |
Change is in E Kentucky's win chance, in points. Scores read N Kentucky, then E Kentucky. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
N Kentucky 2-2WLWL
- Nov 12L 67-75vs Chattanooga
- Nov 7W 61-58vs Kent State
- Nov 5L 28-79at KentuckyDidn't cover +40.5 · Under 135.5
- Nov 2W 84-49vs Defiance
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 60.0 and allowing 65.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
E Kentucky 4-1LWWWW
- Nov 12W 71-57vs S Illinois
- Nov 10W 94-48vs Midway
- Nov 7W 65-56vs Radford
- Nov 5W 63-58at Morehead St
- Nov 2L 89-90at UT Martin
- Last five
- 4–1, scoring 76.4 and allowing 61.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Kentucky | E Kentucky | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 83.2 281st | 89.3 189th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.3 245th | 92.3 135th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 144th | 73.9 51st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.3% 333rd | 44.6% 236th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 133rd | 43.5% 64th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.8% 336th | 23.2% 158th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 253rd | 30.2% 307th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 106th | 0.24 49th |
The widest gap: E Kentucky's defense (135th) against N Kentucky's offense (281st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N Kentucky 27, E Kentucky 35
- First-half margin
- E Kentucky by 7.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.2
- Projected second half
- N Kentucky 32, E Kentucky 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 26.5 scored, 31.5 allowed
- E Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 5 · 39.8 scored, 29.6 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maya LaytonG | 28 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Gaia CastelliG | 28 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Sara BasaranF | 28 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Noelle HubertG | 27 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Dženifera RiekstaF | 22 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Kennedy YounkinF | 20 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 4+ reb 55% | |||||
| Anna HamiltonG | 18 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Alma RashelbachG | 13 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
E Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liz FreihoferG | 33 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Kenleigh WoodsG | 31 | 11.5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Luna UedaG | 30 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Kirsten Lewis-WilliamsG | 29 | 11.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Kailani LindseyF | 21 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Michelle UgwahF | 18 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Brooke NichelsonG | 15 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Kiera HealyG | 11 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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