E Kentucky at New Mexico
Women's · Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at The Pit. E Kentucky our rank 172 · 4-1; New Mexico our rank 241 · 1-2.
Who will win E Kentucky vs New Mexico?
The model gives Eastern Kentucky a 63% chance to beat New Mexico, with a projected score of E Kentucky 69, New Mexico 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Kentucky | |||||
| WoodsG · 32 min | 11.4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 10+ 58% | |
| Lewis-WilliamsG · 30 min | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 10+ 57% | |
| FreihoferG · 34 min | 10.8 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 10+ 54% | |
| UedaG · 32 min | 9.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 10+ 47% | |
| New Mexico | |||||
| AbdurraqibG · 26 min | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| WernliG · 26 min | 6.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 5+ 63% | |
| DuncanG · 28 min | 6.5 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 5+ 60% | |
| KelseyF · 23 min | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Nicole Fritea: E Kentucky 58%New Mexico 42%
The white mark is the call with her: E Kentucky 63%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | E Kentucky without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Kentucky | ||||
| Nicole Fritea | 1.7 | 58% | −5 | 68–65 |
| Liz Freihofer | 1.5 | 58% | −5 | 68–65 |
| Kailani Lindsey | 1.3 | 59% | −4 | 68–65 |
| Kenleigh Woods | 0.9 | 60% | −3 | 68–65 |
| New Mexico | ||||
| Gracie Kelsey | 0.6 | 65% | +2 | 69–64 |
| Laila Abdurraqib | 0.6 | 65% | +2 | 69–64 |
Change is in E Kentucky's win chance, in points. Scores read E Kentucky, then New Mexico. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
E Kentucky 4-1LWWWW
- Nov 12W 71-57vs S Illinois
- Nov 10W 94-48vs Midway
- Nov 7W 65-56vs Radford
- Nov 5W 63-58at Morehead St
- Nov 2L 89-90at UT Martin
- Last five
- 4–1, scoring 76.4 and allowing 61.8
New Mexico 1-2LWL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 62.0 and allowing 58.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| E Kentucky | New Mexico | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.3 189th | 87.7 225th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.3 135th | 99.6 295th |
| Possessions a game | 73.9 51st | 70.8 296th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.6% 236th | 45.5% 172nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.5% 64th | 46.3% 234th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.2% 158th | 24.3% 254th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.2% 307th | 31.3% 264th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 49th | 0.21 204th |
The widest gap: E Kentucky's offense (189th) against New Mexico's defense (295th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- E Kentucky 33, New Mexico 30
- First-half margin
- E Kentucky by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.2
- Projected second half
- E Kentucky 36, New Mexico 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- E Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 5 · 39.8 scored, 29.6 allowed
- New Mexico, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 27.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
E Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liz FreihoferG | 34 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Kenleigh WoodsG | 32 | 11.4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Luna UedaG | 32 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Kirsten Lewis-WilliamsG | 30 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Kailani LindseyF | 21 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Michelle UgwahF | 18 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Brooke NichelsonG | 15 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Kiera HealyG | 11 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
New Mexico
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie DuncanG | 28 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Laila AbdurraqibG | 26 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Kate WernliG | 26 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Gracie KelseyF | 23 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Savannah StrickerG | 21 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Drew JordonG | 21 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Valerie NorwoodG | 18 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Mila ReynoldsF | 14 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 39% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
Missed the last game: Mila Reynolds (16 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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