N Kentucky at Baylor
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Foster Pavilion. N Kentucky our rank 270 · 2-2; Baylor our rank 24 · 4-0.
Who will win N Kentucky vs Baylor?
The model gives Baylor a >99% chance to beat Northern Kentucky, with a projected score of Baylor 87, N Kentucky 49.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | |||||
| ScottG · 25 min | 14.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 15+ 44% | |
| ThompsonG · 25 min | 11.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 10+ 61% | |
| JonesG · 19 min | 11.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 59% | |
| KovalF · 22 min | 11.4 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 10+ 58% | |
| N Kentucky | |||||
| CastelliG · 26 min | 7.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 10+ 31% | |
| LaytonG · 26 min | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 5+ 68% | |
| HubertG · 25 min | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 5+ 59% | |
| BasaranF · 26 min | 5.1 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 5+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kate Koval: N Kentucky <1%Baylor >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Baylor >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Baylor without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | ||||
| Kate Koval | 4.6 | >99% | 0 | 52–85 |
| Taliah Scott | 3.8 | >99% | 0 | 51–85 |
| Skylar Jones | 3.6 | >99% | 0 | 51–85 |
| Trinity Turner | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 51–85 |
Change is in Baylor's win chance, in points. Scores read N Kentucky, then Baylor. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
N Kentucky 2-2WLWL
- Nov 12L 67-75vs Chattanooga
- Nov 7W 61-58vs Kent State
- Nov 5L 28-79at KentuckyDidn't cover +40.5 · Under 135.5
- Nov 2W 84-49vs Defiance
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 60.0 and allowing 65.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Baylor 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 121-43vs Prairie View
- Nov 8W 112-40vs Texas A&M-CC
- Nov 5W 72-44vs C Arkansas
- Nov 2W 87-66vs FDU
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 98.0 and allowing 48.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Kentucky | Baylor | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 83.2 281st | 107.4 26th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.3 245th | 81.5 30th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 144th | 73.7 57th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.3% 333rd | 52.1% 5th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 133rd | 41.7% 19th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.8% 336th | 22.5% 93rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 253rd | 35.5% 56th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 106th | 0.23 59th |
The widest gap: Baylor's defense (30th) against N Kentucky's offense (281st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N Kentucky 21, Baylor 43
- First-half margin
- Baylor by 21.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.6
- Projected second half
- N Kentucky 28, Baylor 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 26.5 scored, 31.5 allowed
- Baylor, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 48.0 scored, 24.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maya LaytonG | 26 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Gaia CastelliG | 26 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Sara BasaranF | 26 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Noelle HubertG | 25 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Dženifera RiekstaF | 22 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Kennedy YounkinF | 20 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 4+ reb 45% | |||||
| Anna HamiltonG | 18 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Alma RashelbachG | 14 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
Baylor
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taliah ScottG | 25 | 14.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Trinity TurnerG | 25 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 7+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Tianna ThompsonG | 25 | 11.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Reese RossF | 24 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 8+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Kate KovalF | 22 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 9+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Skylar JonesG | 19 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Ines GoryanovaG | 18 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Kayla NelmsF | 18 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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