Who will win Lamar vs Omaha?
The model gives Lamar a 62% chance to beat Omaha, with a projected score of Lamar 76, Omaha 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lamar | |||||
| BerryG · 22 min | 14.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 15+ 44% | |
| EasonF · 22 min | 11.1 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 56% | |
| HinkerF · 21 min | 8.5 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 10+ 37% | |
| CollinsG · 24 min | 8.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 10+ 34% | |
 Omaha | |||||
| ThompsonG · 28 min | 10.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 55% | |
| CrosbyG · 26 min | 10.1 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 10+ 49% | |
| Jordan Jr.G · 22 min | 8.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 10+ 37% | |
| StubblefieldG · 30 min | 7.9 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Quante Berry: Lamar 60%Omaha 40%
The white mark is the call with him: Lamar 62%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Lamar without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar | ||||
| Quante Berry | 0.8 | 60% | −2 | 76–73 |
Change is in Lamar's win chance, in points. Scores read Lamar, then Omaha. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Lamar 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 122-57vs Centenary (LA)
- Nov 7L 81-83at Abilene ChrstnDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 167.5
- Nov 2W 124-62vs Schreiner
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 109.0 and allowing 67.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Omaha 2-2WLLW
- Nov 10W 78-66vs York (NE)
- Nov 7L 56-90at Utah StateDidn't cover +29.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 6L 67-108at BYUDidn't cover +32.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 2W 73-65vs Mid America Christian
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 68.5 and allowing 82.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Lamar | Omaha | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.5 258th | 98.3 301st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.6 213th | 114.3 328th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 184th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.5% 105th | 48.6% 309th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.8% 274th | 53.4% 343rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 216th | 18.1% 182nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.4% 204th | 31.2% 218th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 121st | 0.24 296th |
The widest gap: Lamar's defense (213th) against Omaha's offense (301st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Lamar 36, Omaha 34
- First-half margin
- Lamar by 2.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.8
- Projected second half
- Lamar 40, Omaha 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Lamar, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 54.3 scored, 31.7 allowed
- Omaha, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 30.0 scored, 40.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Lamar
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niccolo MorettiG | 28 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 57% | |||||
| Mike CollinsG | 24 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Dominic EasonF | 22 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Quante BerryG | 22 | 14.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| M.J. WardlowG | 22 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Caden HinkerF | 21 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Jeremiah JonesG | 20 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Filip RadakovicG | 17 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
Omaha
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant StubblefieldG | 30 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Deke ThompsonG | 28 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Cahmai CrosbyG | 26 | 10.1 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 49% to play · 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Isaac OndekaneC | 26 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 7+ reb 48% | |||||
| Justin BolisF | 22 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Jonny Jordan Jr.G | 22 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Dace PleasantF | 18 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Heri BukingaC | 11 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 42% | |||||
Missed the last game: Cahmai Crosby (30 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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