Who will win Rice vs Lamar?
The model gives Rice a 56% chance to beat Lamar, with a projected score of Rice 75, Lamar 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rice | |||||
| ThompsonG · 26 min | 11.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 59% | |
| AdkinsG · 22 min | 10.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 50% | |
| DarG · 21 min | 9.6 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 45% | |
| EguagieF · 24 min | 7.7 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 31% | |
 Lamar | |||||
| BerryG · 22 min | 13.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 15+ 41% | |
| EasonF · 22 min | 10.8 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 10+ 54% | |
| HinkerF · 21 min | 8.3 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 10+ 36% | |
| CollinsG · 24 min | 7.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jacob Dar: Rice 52%Lamar 48%
The white mark is the call with him: Rice 56%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Rice without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | ||||
| Jacob Dar | 1.4 | 52% | −4 | 75–74 |
| Lamar | ||||
| Quante Berry | 0.8 | 59% | +3 | 76–73 |
Change is in Rice's win chance, in points. Scores read Rice, then Lamar. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Rice 1-2WLL
- Nov 9L 73-91at StanfordCovered +18.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 5L 71-72vs East Texas A&MDidn't cover −3.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2W 100-55vs Dallas Christian
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 81.3 and allowing 72.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Lamar 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 122-57vs Centenary (LA)
- Nov 7L 81-83at Abilene ChrstnDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 167.5
- Nov 2W 124-62vs Schreiner
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 109.0 and allowing 67.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Rice | Lamar | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.2 196th | 100.5 258th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.9 226th | 109.6 213th |
| Possessions a game | 70.6 209th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.7% 305th | 51.5% 105th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.5% 189th | 51.8% 274th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 192nd | 18.4% 216th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 177th | 31.4% 204th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 243rd | 0.27 121st |
The widest gap: Rice's defense (226th) against Lamar's offense (258th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Rice 35, Lamar 34
- First-half margin
- Rice by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.7
- Projected second half
- Rice 40, Lamar 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Rice, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 32.0 allowed
- Lamar, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 54.3 scored, 31.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Rice
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson ThompsonG | 26 | 11.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Eternity EguagieF | 24 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Carmelo AdkinsG | 22 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jacob DarG | 21 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Jimmy Oladokun Jr.F | 20 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 53% | |||||
| Dallas HobbsG | 20 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Zalan FlasarF | 14 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
| Alexander LeethF | 13 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Lamar
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niccolo MorettiG | 28 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 54% | |||||
| Mike CollinsG | 24 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Dominic EasonF | 22 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Quante BerryG | 22 | 13.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| M.J. WardlowG | 22 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Caden HinkerF | 21 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Jeremiah JonesG | 20 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Filip RadakovicG | 17 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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