Who will win Morgan St vs UMBC?
The model gives UMBC a 96% chance to beat Morgan State, with a projected score of UMBC 74, Morgan St 52.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UMBC | |||||
| WilliamsG · 24 min | 14.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 15+ 48% | |
| WilliamsF · 21 min | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 10+ 59% | |
| SlomackG · 21 min | 11.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 56% | |
| AustinG · 23 min | 10.0 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 10+ 48% | |
 Morgan St | |||||
| InnocentC · 20 min | 5.8 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 5+ 55% | |
| WilliamsG · 16 min | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 5+ 50% | |
| HayesG · 24 min | 4.9 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 5+ 45% | |
| VaughnG · 19 min | 4.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 5+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Angela Williams: Morgan St 5%UMBC 95%
The white mark is the call with her: UMBC 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UMBC without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC | ||||
| Angela Williams | 1.6 | 95% | −1 | 53–73 |
| Heidi Williams | 1.4 | 95% | −1 | 53–73 |
| Kennedy Austin | 1.2 | 95% | −1 | 53–73 |
| Alaina Williams | 1.1 | 95% | −1 | 53–73 |
Change is in UMBC's win chance, in points. Scores read Morgan St, then UMBC. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Morgan St 1-3WLLL
- Nov 8L 38-95at Oklahoma
- Nov 6L 38-92at Oklahoma StDidn't cover +50.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 4L 38-83at Colorado
- Nov 2W 103-47vs Washington Adventist
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 54.2 and allowing 79.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
UMBC 3-0WWW
- Nov 8W 91-67at Quinnipiac
- Nov 5W 79-53vs Mount St Marys
- Nov 2W 92-29vs Stevenson
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 87.3 and allowing 49.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Morgan St | UMBC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 77.1 339th | 92.4 146th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.8 299th | 92.3 136th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 144th | 71.2 265th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 39.9% 361st | 48.5% 31st |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.5% 330th | 45.6% 181st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 246th | 23.4% 176th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.5% 334th | 35.4% 64th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 330th | 0.21 182nd |
The widest gap: UMBC's defense (136th) against Morgan St's offense (339th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Morgan St 24, UMBC 36
- First-half margin
- UMBC by 12.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.8
- Projected second half
- Morgan St 29, UMBC 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Morgan St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 23.8 scored, 37.5 allowed
- UMBC, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 24.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Morgan St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mihjae HayesG | 24 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Chardae RumphG | 20 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Merit InnocentC | 20 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 52% | |||||
| Yonta VaughnG | 19 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Mercy LasuF | 17 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Simran WilliamsG | 16 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Kamari ForrestG | 16 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Dakota AlstonG | 16 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Missed the last game: Kamari Forrest (19 min a game).
UMBC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidi WilliamsG | 24 | 14.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Kennedy AustinG | 23 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Alaina WilliamsF | 21 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Angela WilliamsF | 21 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Dagny SlomackG | 21 | 11.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Tiara BellamyG | 21 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Shariah BaynesG | 18 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Alden YergeyG | 15 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Missed the last game: Sadaya Jones (18 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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