Who will win Morgan St vs Maryland?
The model gives Maryland a >99% chance to beat Morgan State, with a projected score of Maryland 94, Morgan St 44.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maryland | |||||
| MackG · 27 min | 18.8 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 20+ 43% | |
| OkananwaG · 24 min | 18.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 20+ 41% | |
| McDanielG · 23 min | 12.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 10+ 64% | |
| AgaraF · 21 min | 12.0 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 62% | |
 Morgan St | |||||
| InnocentC · 20 min | 5.1 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 5+ 48% | |
| WilliamsG · 17 min | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 5+ 45% | |
| VaughnG · 19 min | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 5+ 39% | |
| HayesG · 23 min | 4.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 5+ 37% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Oluchi Okananwa: Morgan St <1%Maryland >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Maryland >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Maryland without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | ||||
| Oluchi Okananwa | 6.6 | >99% | 0 | 48–91 |
| Addi Mack | 5.5 | >99% | 0 | 47–92 |
| Bri McDaniel | 4.4 | >99% | 0 | 47–92 |
| Nunu Agara | 4.3 | >99% | 0 | 47–92 |
Change is in Maryland's win chance, in points. Scores read Morgan St, then Maryland. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Morgan St 1-3WLLL
- Nov 8L 38-95at Oklahoma
- Nov 6L 38-92at Oklahoma StDidn't cover +50.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 4L 38-83at Colorado
- Nov 2W 103-47vs Washington Adventist
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 54.2 and allowing 79.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Maryland 1-1LW
- Nov 8W 81-62vs George Mason
- Nov 2L 93-101vs South Carolina
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 87.0 and allowing 81.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Morgan St | Maryland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 77.1 339th | 112.4 13th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.8 299th | 81.9 33rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 144th | 74.3 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 39.9% 361st | 47.2% 83rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.5% 330th | 45.9% 209th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 246th | 22.1% 69th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.5% 334th | 34.6% 97th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 330th | 0.20 257th |
The widest gap: Maryland's defense (33rd) against Morgan St's offense (339th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Morgan St 19, Maryland 47
- First-half margin
- Maryland by 28.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.8
- Projected second half
- Morgan St 26, Maryland 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Morgan St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 23.8 scored, 37.5 allowed
- Maryland, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 34.0 scored, 45.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Morgan St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mihjae HayesG | 23 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 37% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Merit InnocentC | 20 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 44% | |||||
| Chardae RumphG | 20 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Yonta VaughnG | 19 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Mercy LasuF | 17 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Simran WilliamsG | 17 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Dakota AlstonG | 16 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Kamari ForrestG | 16 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
Missed the last game: Kamari Forrest (19 min a game).
Maryland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addi MackG | 27 | 18.8 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| 20+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Oluchi OkananwaG | 24 | 18.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| 20+ pts 41% · 3+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Bri McDanielG | 23 | 12.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 4+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Nunu AgaraF | 21 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Trinity JonesG | 20 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Lea BartelmeG | 20 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Marya BoikoF | 17 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Jordyn JacksonG | 16 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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