E Kentucky at Kent State
Monday, November 16, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at M.A.C. Center. E Kentucky our rank 254 · 2-1; Kent State our rank 178 · 1-2.
Who will win E Kentucky vs Kent State?
The model gives Kent State a 74% chance to beat Eastern Kentucky, with a projected score of Kent State 83, E Kentucky 76.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State | |||||
| MillerG · 25 min | 12.4 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| Willis Jr.G · 28 min | 11.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| HenryG · 21 min | 9.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| DioufF · 20 min | 9.1 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 41% | |
| E Kentucky | |||||
| McCarterG · 22 min | 11.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| KingG · 22 min | 10.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 51% | |
| LoweF · 23 min | 9.2 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 43% | |
| HoltG · 20 min | 8.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Chansey Willis Jr.: E Kentucky 29%Kent State 71%
The white mark is the call with him: Kent State 74%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Kent State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State | ||||
| Chansey Willis Jr. | 0.9 | 71% | −3 | 76–83 |
| Jamal Sumlin | 0.7 | 72% | −2 | 76–83 |
| Godslove Nwabude | 0.7 | 72% | −2 | 76–83 |
| Christian Henry | 0.7 | 72% | −2 | 76–83 |
Change is in Kent State's win chance, in points. Scores read E Kentucky, then Kent State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
E Kentucky 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 71-85at Georgia TechCovered +15.5 · Under 165.5
- Nov 6W 106-68vs Midway
- Nov 2W 105-54vs Kentucky Christian
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 94.0 and allowing 69.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Kent State 1-2LWL
- Nov 11L 73-91at UNC WilmingtonDidn't cover +7.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 6W 102-50vs Roberts Wesleyan
- Nov 2L 75-85at Louisiana Tech
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 83.3 and allowing 75.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| E Kentucky | Kent State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.7 237th | 106.9 127th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.0 291st | 111.8 286th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 72.0 63rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.4% 118th | 49.1% 284th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 117th | 52.3% 303rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.2% 197th | 16.3% 16th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.4% 342nd | 36.5% 3rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 267th | 0.26 192nd |
The widest gap: Kent State's offense (127th) against E Kentucky's defense (291st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- E Kentucky 35, Kent State 39
- First-half margin
- Kent State by 4.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.7
- Projected second half
- E Kentucky 41, Kent State 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- E Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 48.3 scored, 29.3 allowed
- Kent State, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 37.0 scored, 35.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
E Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shadrak LasuF | 25 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Josh LoweF | 23 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Yvens PaulF | 22 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 6+ reb 50% | |||||
| Justin McCarterG | 22 | 11.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Damone KingG | 22 | 10.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Drae VasserG | 21 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Austin BallF | 20 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Jackson HoltG | 20 | 8.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
Kent State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chansey Willis Jr.G | 28 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Jamal SumlinG | 26 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Dhani MillerG | 25 | 12.4 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Christian HenryG | 21 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Latif DioufF | 20 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Quinn WoidkeG | 20 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Cameron WilliamsF | 18 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Brenden MossG | 17 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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