Kent State at Cleveland St
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Wolstein Center. Kent State our rank 178 · 1-2; Cleveland St our rank 335 · 1-2.
Who will win Kent State vs Cleveland St?
The model gives Kent State a 72% chance to beat Cleveland State, with a projected score of Kent State 86, Cleveland St 79.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State | |||||
| MillerG · 25 min | 12.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 15+ 35% | |
| Willis Jr.G · 28 min | 11.4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 10+ 58% | |
| HenryG · 21 min | 10.1 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| DioufF · 20 min | 9.3 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 10+ 43% | |
| Cleveland St | |||||
| GriffithG · 31 min | 18.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 20+ 41% | |
| LoweryG · 28 min | 9.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 10+ 45% | |
| JonesF · 21 min | 8.2 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 10+ 35% | |
| BaysG · 17 min | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Chansey Willis Jr.: Kent State 70%Cleveland St 30%
The white mark is the call with him: Kent State 72%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Kent State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State | ||||
| Chansey Willis Jr. | 0.9 | 70% | −2 | 86–80 |
| Jamal Sumlin | 0.7 | 70% | −2 | 86–80 |
| Godslove Nwabude | 0.7 | 70% | −2 | 86–80 |
| Christian Henry | 0.7 | 70% | −2 | 86–80 |
Change is in Kent State's win chance, in points. Scores read Kent State, then Cleveland St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Kent State 1-2LWL
- Nov 11L 73-91at UNC WilmingtonDidn't cover +7.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 6W 102-50vs Roberts Wesleyan
- Nov 2L 75-85at Louisiana Tech
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 83.3 and allowing 75.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Cleveland St 1-2LWL
- Nov 9L 79-95at Bowling GreenDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 6W 103-79vs Michigan Dearborn
- Nov 3L 50-111at Missouri
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 77.3 and allowing 95.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Kent State | Cleveland St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.9 127th | 102.9 201st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.8 286th | 119.9 364th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 63rd | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.1% 284th | 51.3% 124th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.3% 303rd | 55.3% 361st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.3% 16th | 18.1% 192nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.5% 3rd | 31.8% 174th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 192nd | 0.26 208th |
The widest gap: Kent State's offense (127th) against Cleveland St's defense (364th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Kent State 41, Cleveland St 37
- First-half margin
- Kent State by 3.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.6
- Projected second half
- Kent State 45, Cleveland St 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 87.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Kent State, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 37.0 scored, 35.0 allowed
- Cleveland St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 46.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Kent State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chansey Willis Jr.G | 28 | 11.4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Jamal SumlinG | 26 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Dhani MillerG | 25 | 12.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Christian HenryG | 21 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Latif DioufF | 20 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Quinn WoidkeG | 20 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Cameron WilliamsF | 18 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Brenden MossG | 17 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
Cleveland St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayvon GriffithG | 31 | 18.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 20+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Jordan LoweryG | 28 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Curtis Stinson Jr.G | 21 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Dre JonesF | 21 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 55% | |||||
| Alex BruskotterG | 19 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ogbe UagboeG | 17 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Micah BaysG | 17 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Gavin HeadingsF | 16 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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