Lindenwood at Northern Iowa
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at McLeod Center. Lindenwood our rank 296 · 2-2; Northern Iowa our rank 128 · 2-1.
Who will win Lindenwood vs Northern Iowa?
The model gives Northern Iowa a 88% chance to beat Lindenwood, with a projected score of Northern Iowa 84, Lindenwood 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa | |||||
| UelmenG · 30 min | 20.2 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 20+ 50% | |
| VisG · 28 min | 15.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 15+ 51% | |
| Johnson-AriguF · 25 min | 15.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 15+ 49% | |
| McCubbinG · 31 min | 11.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 55% | |
| Lindenwood | |||||
| GreenG · 20 min | 10.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 49% | |
| ArchieG · 21 min | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 10+ 37% | |
| SpencerG · 26 min | 8.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 10+ 35% | |
| DioufF · 19 min | 8.2 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Isaiah Johnson-Arigu: Lindenwood 15%Northern Iowa 85%
The white mark is the call with him: Northern Iowa 88%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Northern Iowa without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa | ||||
| Isaiah Johnson-Arigu | 1.4 | 85% | −3 | 71–83 |
| Greyson Uelmen | 1.2 | 86% | −2 | 71–83 |
| Ian Smikle | 0.7 | 87% | −1 | 71–83 |
| Tate McCubbin | 0.6 | 87% | −1 | 71–83 |
Change is in Northern Iowa's win chance, in points. Scores read Lindenwood, then Northern Iowa. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Lindenwood 2-2LWWL
- Nov 11L 60-94at NebraskaCovered +34.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 7W 115-44vs East West
- Nov 5W 120-46vs Central Bible
- Nov 2L 59-98at TCU
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 88.5 and allowing 70.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Northern Iowa 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 89-76vs Green BayCovered −3.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 7L 83-98at FurmanDidn't cover +4.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 3W 106-70vs Cornell (IA)
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 92.7 and allowing 81.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Lindenwood | Northern Iowa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.4 299th | 108.7 106th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.4 276th | 108.8 193rd |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 16th | 69.3 322nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.9% 291st | 54.1% 16th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 259th | 52.1% 287th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.3% 305th | 17.4% 101st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.2% 95th | 30.8% 240th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 293rd | 0.26 171st |
The widest gap: Northern Iowa's offense (106th) against Lindenwood's defense (276th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Lindenwood 32, Northern Iowa 40
- First-half margin
- Northern Iowa by 7.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.2
- Projected second half
- Lindenwood 38, Northern Iowa 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Lindenwood, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 48.8 scored, 39.2 allowed
- Northern Iowa, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 38.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Lindenwood
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier SpencerG | 26 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Malek ArchieG | 21 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Shamiere GreenG | 20 | 10.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Marsai MasonF | 19 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Makhan DioufF | 19 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Dom ClayG | 18 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Matar DiopF | 18 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Noah TaitzG | 18 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
Northern Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tate McCubbinG | 31 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Greyson UelmenG | 30 | 20.2 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 20+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Carson VisG | 28 | 15.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Isaiah Johnson-AriguF | 25 | 15.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Levi ValdoG | 19 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ian SmikleF | 17 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Geon HutchinsG | 15 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kyle PockF | 14 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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