Samford at SC Upstate
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at G.B. Hodge Center. Samford our rank 163 · 1-1; SC Upstate our rank 310 · 1-3.
Who will win Samford vs SC Upstate?
The model gives Samford a 69% chance to beat South Carolina Upstate, with a projected score of Samford 78, SC Upstate 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samford | |||||
| NoardG · 30 min | 15.6 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 15+ 53% | |
| NorrisG · 30 min | 12.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| ShaverC · 23 min | 10.0 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 48% | |
| Campbell-FinchG · 27 min | 9.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 10+ 46% | |
| SC Upstate | |||||
| TubekF · 22 min | 11.1 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 10+ 56% | |
| WebbF · 23 min | 10.4 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 51% | |
| NaugleG · 26 min | 8.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 38% | |
| EdmondF · 26 min | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Cooper Noard: Samford 62%SC Upstate 38%
The white mark is the call with him: Samford 69%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Samford without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samford | ||||
| Cooper Noard | 2.1 | 62% | −7 | 77–73 |
| Ty Davis | 0.7 | 66% | −3 | 78–73 |
Change is in Samford's win chance, in points. Scores read Samford, then SC Upstate. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Samford 1-1WL
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 83.0 and allowing 73.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
SC Upstate 1-3LLLW
- Nov 11W 104-49vs Bob Jones
- Nov 9L 56-65at CoastalCovered +10.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 6L 70-78vs SC StateDidn't cover −3.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 2L 70-83at East Carolina
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 75.0 and allowing 68.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Samford | SC Upstate | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.8 147th | 97.1 316th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.6 212th | 111.4 276th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 133rd | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.1% 138th | 48.4% 321st |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.6% 194th | 49.9% 141st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.0% 71st | 19.2% 298th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.6% 303rd | 31.4% 207th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 186th | 0.25 260th |
The widest gap: Samford's offense (147th) against SC Upstate's defense (276th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Samford 37, SC Upstate 34
- First-half margin
- Samford by 3.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.5
- Projected second half
- Samford 41, SC Upstate 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Samford, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 42.5 scored, 36.5 allowed
- SC Upstate, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 38.5 scored, 33.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Samford
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper NoardG | 30 | 15.6 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Cade NorrisG | 30 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Isaiah Campbell-FinchG | 27 | 9.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Ty DavisG | 26 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Will ShaverC | 23 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Najimi GeorgeG | 15 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Brandon FussellG | 12 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Braeden MacVicarF | 12 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
SC Upstate
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ries NaugleG | 26 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Derek EdmondF | 26 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Amont'e Allen-JohnsonG | 24 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Miles WebbF | 23 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| David TubekF | 22 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jalyn PattersonG | 22 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Alessandro PerottiF | 18 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 46% | |||||
| Coen CollierC | 16 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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