Georgia St at Jax State
Friday, November 20, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Pete Mathews Coliseum. Georgia St our rank 278 · 1-3; Jax State our rank 267 · 1-2.
Who will win Georgia St vs Jax State?
The model gives Jacksonville State a 62% chance to beat Georgia State, with a projected score of Jax State 75, Georgia St 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jax State | |||||
| StiemkeG · 31 min | 16.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 15+ 56% | |
| Lockett Jr.G · 32 min | 13.4 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 15+ 39% | |
| CunninghamF · 27 min | 11.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 10+ 56% | |
| CroleyF · 24 min | 7.7 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 31% | |
| Georgia St | |||||
| MeyerG · 36 min | 17.8 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 20+ 38% | |
| JacksonG · 36 min | 16.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 15+ 55% | |
| Fredson-ColeF · 31 min | 11.3 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 10+ 58% | |
| ParnellG · 24 min | 10.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 10+ 49% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Leon Horner: Georgia St 42%Jax State 58%
The white mark is the call with him: Jax State 62%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Jax State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jax State | ||||
| Leon Horner | 1.1 | 58% | −4 | 72–75 |
| Georgia St | ||||
| Jacolb Fredson-Cole | 0.9 | 65% | +3 | 71–76 |
Change is in Jax State's win chance, in points. Scores read Georgia St, then Jax State. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Georgia St 1-3LLWL
- Nov 10L 92-95at Fresno StCovered +5.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 7W 111-61vs Andrew
- Nov 5L 67-77at CharlotteCovered +11.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2L 73-76vs Bowling Green
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 85.8 and allowing 77.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Jax State 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 46-92at HoustonDidn't cover +33.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 5L 80-83at South AlabamaCovered +4.5 · Over 139.5
- Nov 2W 123-59vs LaGrange
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 83.0 and allowing 78.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Georgia St | Jax State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.5 259th | 99.8 277th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.5 299th | 111.0 261st |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 69.6 302nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.3% 122nd | 49.6% 247th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 233rd | 50.1% 153rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.3% 92nd | 17.9% 162nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.1% 227th | 30.4% 263rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 333rd | 0.24 273rd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Georgia St 34, Jax State 35
- First-half margin
- Jax State by 1.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.9
- Projected second half
- Georgia St 38, Jax State 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Georgia St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 38.2 scored, 35.0 allowed
- Jax State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 30.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Georgia St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob MeyerG | 36 | 17.8 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 4+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jaden JacksonG | 36 | 16.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 52% · 4+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jacolb Fredson-ColeF | 31 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 8+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| David ThomasG | 30 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Eric ParnellG | 24 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Mason NicholsonC | 20 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 5+ reb 43% | |||||
| Chris JonesG | 20 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Orion WilsonF | 10 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Jax State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Lockett Jr.G | 32 | 13.4 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 5+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jordan StiemkeG | 31 | 16.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 3.1 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 52% · 3+ threes 54% | |||||
| Naas CunninghamF | 27 | 11.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Ethan CroleyF | 24 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Leon HornerG | 23 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Kash PolkF | 14 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 57% | |||||
| Alijah CurryF | 14 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Ma'Shy HillF | 13 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 60% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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