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Probable Stats / Women's / Wednesday, November 18

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Utah Tech at Bakersfield

Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 9:30 PM ET at Icardo Center. Utah Tech our rank 315 · 2-1; Bakersfield our rank 316 · 1-1.

Who will win Utah Tech vs Bakersfield?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Cal State Bakersfield a 64% chance to beat Utah Tech, with a projected score of Bakersfield 70, Utah Tech 65.

To winBakersfield 64%Utah Tech 36%
Projected score65–70Utah Tech, then Bakersfield
Margin4.7Bakersfield · no line posted
Total135.2no line posted
First half31–33Bakersfield ahead 59%
Utah Tech by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Bakersfield by 30Model: Bakersfield by 4.7Utah Tech by 30by 10by 10Bakersfield by 30Model: Bakersfield by 4.7

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Bakersfield
MooreF · 24 min11.35.21.310+ 58%
MooreF · 26 min9.86.00.710+ 47%
JohnsonG · 28 min8.42.92.610+ 36%
OrtizG · 25 min6.83.11.75+ 63%
Utah Tech
StokerF · 23 min13.15.41.815+ 38%
BowenG · 26 min10.13.71.410+ 49%
SmithG · 25 min9.13.42.810+ 41%
ZufeltG · 24 min8.74.61.910+ 39%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Utah Tech 2-1WLW

    1. Nov 11W 133-47vs Nelson American Indian
    2. Nov 6L 60-87vs CA Baptist
    3. Nov 2W 107-39vs Life Pacific
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 100.0 and allowing 57.7

    Bakersfield 1-1WL

    1. Nov 12L 51-85at WashingtonCovered +42.5 · Over 131.5
    2. Nov 3W 75-46vs Stanislaus State
    Last 2
    1–1, scoring 63.0 and allowing 65.5
    Against the spread, this season
    1–0
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Utah TechBakersfield
    Points scored per 100 possessions83.8 274th81.4 302nd
    Points allowed per 100102.7 335th100.4 305th
    Possessions a game73.4 74th72.6 129th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)42.7% 323rd45.9% 144th
    Opponents' shooting47.2% 283rd48.6% 332nd
    Turnovers, share of possessions23.1% 145th25.1% 287th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses32.9% 170th32.9% 171st
    Free throws per shot0.19 321st0.22 114th

    The widest gap: Bakersfield's offense (302nd) against Utah Tech's defense (335th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Utah Tech 31, Bakersfield 33
    First-half margin
    Bakersfield by 2.7
    First-half points, both teams
    64.1
    Projected second half
    Utah Tech 35, Bakersfield 37
    Second-half points, both teams
    71.1
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Utah Tech, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 45.7 scored, 28.3 allowed
    Bakersfield, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 2 · 30.0 scored, 35.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Utah Tech

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Alyssa BowenG2610.13.71.41.7
    10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 45%
    Ava SmithG259.13.42.81.5
    10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 50%
    Kendall DykstraG247.83.21.30.9
    10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 53%
    Sophia ZufeltG248.74.61.90.9
    10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 53%
    Savannah StokerF2313.15.41.80.8
    15+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 52%
    Aubrey CookC194.64.40.30.0
    5+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 44%
    Maia RhayG176.41.71.40.5
    5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 38%
    Calyn WoodG175.02.21.11.1
    5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 61%

    Missed the last game: Eva Woodward (19 min a game).

    Bakersfield

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Madison JohnsonG288.42.92.60.8
    10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 51%
    Dresha MooreF269.86.00.70.2
    10+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 15%
    Aloni OliverG256.43.81.30.8
    5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 50%
    Nseije OrtizG256.83.11.70.9
    5+ pts 63% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 53%
    Mydrea MooreF2411.35.21.30.3
    10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 35%
    Elyse MitchellG185.32.31.20.8
    5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 52%
    Malohni WarrenG163.82.11.10.6
    5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 43%
    Faith CurryG153.52.10.60.7
    5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 45%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Wed, Nov 18

    All games
    1. 5 PMprojected 64-70Syracuse at Harvard, women's: game page
    2. 6 PMprojected 70-68Georgia at Georgia Tech, women's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 71-63Iowa State at Northern Iowa, women's: game page
    4. 7 PMprojected 63-72Penn at Saint Joseph's, women's: game page
    5. 7 PMprojected 64-75Ole Miss at Ohio State, women's: game page
    6. 7:30 PMprojected 62-72St John's at Oklahoma St, women's: game page
    Utah Tech next: at Boise St, Sun, Nov 15 · 7%Bakersfield next: at San Francisco, Sun, Nov 22 · 4%Utah Tech: schedule and oddsBakersfield: schedule and odds