Bakersfield at San Francisco
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at The Sobrato Center. Bakersfield our rank 316 · 1-1; San Francisco our rank 123 · 2-1.
Who will win Bakersfield vs San Francisco?
The model gives San Francisco a 96% chance to beat Cal State Bakersfield, with a projected score of San Francisco 81, Bakersfield 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | |||||
| EdokpaigbeG · 31 min | 18.0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 20+ 39% | |
| CargolG · 32 min | 13.3 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 15+ 39% | |
| YenesF · 21 min | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 10+ 59% | |
| MiG · 22 min | 10.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 10+ 54% | |
| Bakersfield | |||||
| MooreF · 23 min | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| MooreF · 24 min | 8.2 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 10+ 35% | |
| JohnsonG · 26 min | 6.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 5+ 65% | |
| OrtizG · 24 min | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 5+ 53% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Candy Edokpaigbe: Bakersfield 7%San Francisco 93%
The white mark is the call with her: San Francisco 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | San Francisco without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | ||||
| Candy Edokpaigbe | 3.2 | 93% | −3 | 60–80 |
| Aina Cargol | 1.5 | 95% | −1 | 59–80 |
| Noelia Mourino | 1.1 | 95% | −1 | 59–81 |
| Lucia Yenes | 1.0 | 95% | −1 | 59–81 |
Change is in San Francisco's win chance, in points. Scores read Bakersfield, then San Francisco. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Bakersfield 1-1WL
- Nov 12L 51-85at WashingtonCovered +42.5 · Over 131.5
- Nov 3W 75-46vs Stanislaus State
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 63.0 and allowing 65.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
San Francisco 2-1WLW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 75.7 and allowing 78.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Bakersfield | San Francisco | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 81.4 302nd | 95.7 108th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.4 305th | 92.9 151st |
| Possessions a game | 72.6 129th | 74.8 16th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.9% 144th | 46.0% 140th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.6% 332nd | 46.6% 252nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.1% 287th | 22.6% 108th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.9% 171st | 32.1% 221st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 114th | 0.21 191st |
The widest gap: San Francisco's offense (108th) against Bakersfield's defense (305th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Bakersfield 26, San Francisco 40
- First-half margin
- San Francisco by 13.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Projected second half
- Bakersfield 32, San Francisco 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Bakersfield, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 30.0 scored, 35.5 allowed
- San Francisco, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 37.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Bakersfield
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison JohnsonG | 26 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Dresha MooreF | 24 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 52% | |||||
| Aloni OliverG | 24 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Nseije OrtizG | 24 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Mydrea MooreF | 23 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Elyse MitchellG | 18 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Malohni WarrenG | 16 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Faith CurryG | 15 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
San Francisco
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aina CargolG | 32 | 13.3 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 53% · 6+ ast 57% | |||||
| Candy EdokpaigbeG | 31 | 18.0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Maria BurligaG | 23 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Savi MiG | 22 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Lucia YenesF | 21 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Noelia MourinoF | 17 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Keiryn McGuffG | 17 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Natasa TausovaF | 14 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…