Who will win Temple vs MTSU?
The model gives Temple a 51% chance to beat Middle Tennessee, with a projected score of Temple 73, MTSU 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Temple | |||||
| FordG · 31 min | 13.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 15+ 41% | |
| ScottG · 28 min | 12.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 63% | |
| MarshG · 22 min | 8.7 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 10+ 38% | |
| GriffithsG · 30 min | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 36% | |
 MTSU | |||||
| BarnettG · 30 min | 13.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 15+ 41% | |
| CarterG · 34 min | 12.9 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 15+ 36% | |
| Whitlock Jr.G · 29 min | 10.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 53% | |
| SilerC · 20 min | 7.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Gavin Griffiths: Temple 48%MTSU 52%
The white mark is the call with him: Temple 51%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Temple without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temple | ||||
| Gavin Griffiths | 0.8 | 48% | −3 | 72–73 |
| Derrian Ford | 0.7 | 48% | −3 | 72–73 |
| Jordan Marsh | 0.7 | 48% | −3 | 72–73 |
| MTSU | ||||
| Jahvin Carter | 0.7 | 54% | +3 | 73–72 |
Change is in Temple's win chance, in points. Scores read Temple, then MTSU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Temple 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 81-91vs CharlestonDidn't cover +1.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 8L 53-79vs RichmondDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 2W 68-56vs C Connecticut
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 67.3 and allowing 75.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
MTSU 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 73-68vs EvansvilleDidn't cover −9.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 6L 45-89at KansasDidn't cover +28.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 2W 117-73vs Fisk
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 78.3 and allowing 76.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Temple | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.4 209th | 101.7 236th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.4 207th | 108.8 192nd |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 292nd | 70.3 238th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.8% 340th | 48.2% 327th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.1% 295th | 51.9% 277th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.5% 117th | 19.1% 291st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.9% 288th | 31.4% 205th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 356th | 0.23 306th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Temple 34, MTSU 34
- First-half margin
- Temple by 0.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.0
- Projected second half
- Temple 38, MTSU 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Temple, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 29.0 scored, 33.0 allowed
- MTSU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 29.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Temple
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrian FordG | 31 | 13.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Gavin GriffithsG | 30 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Cam ScottG | 28 | 12.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Baboucarr NjieF | 23 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Jordan MarshG | 22 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Deuce DrakeG | 16 | 8.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Dez WhiteG | 15 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Dallis DillardG | 13 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
MTSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvin CarterG | 34 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Quintero BarnettG | 30 | 13.7 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Marcus Whitlock Jr.G | 29 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Ofri NavehF | 25 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Kaleb SilerC | 20 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Landyn ColyerG | 19 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jarred HallF | 16 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Eli RiceG | 16 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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