Lindenwood at Stony Brook
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Stony Brook Arena. Lindenwood our rank 296 · 2-2; Stony Brook our rank 181 · 1-2.
Who will win Lindenwood vs Stony Brook?
The model gives Stony Brook a 78% chance to beat Lindenwood, with a projected score of Stony Brook 80, Lindenwood 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Brook | |||||
| NdjongaF · 31 min | 15.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 15+ 55% | |
| DaughtryF · 26 min | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 10+ 64% | |
| CengizG · 25 min | 12.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 10+ 64% | |
| UgusukG · 29 min | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 10+ 43% | |
| Lindenwood | |||||
| GreenG · 20 min | 10.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 50% | |
| ArchieG · 21 min | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 10+ 38% | |
| SpencerG · 26 min | 8.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 10+ 36% | |
| DioufF · 19 min | 8.3 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaden Daughtry: Lindenwood 25%Stony Brook 75%
The white mark is the call with him: Stony Brook 78%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Stony Brook without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Brook | ||||
| Jaden Daughtry | 1.3 | 75% | −3 | 72–79 |
| Morris Ugusuk | 0.7 | 77% | −1 | 71–80 |
Change is in Stony Brook's win chance, in points. Scores read Lindenwood, then Stony Brook. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Lindenwood 2-2LWWL
- Nov 11L 60-94at NebraskaCovered +34.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 7W 115-44vs East West
- Nov 5W 120-46vs Central Bible
- Nov 2L 59-98at TCU
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 88.5 and allowing 70.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Stony Brook 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 59-69at PrincetonDidn't cover +5.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 6L 65-78at NorthwesternDidn't cover +12.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 2W 97-47vs SUNY Old Westbury
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 73.7 and allowing 64.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Lindenwood | Stony Brook | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.4 299th | 104.0 182nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.4 276th | 109.2 202nd |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 16th | 69.5 307th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.9% 291st | 50.3% 204th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 259th | 52.1% 295th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.3% 305th | 16.9% 56th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.2% 95th | 31.6% 189th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 293rd | 0.28 102nd |
The widest gap: Stony Brook's defense (202nd) against Lindenwood's offense (299th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Lindenwood 33, Stony Brook 38
- First-half margin
- Stony Brook by 4.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Projected second half
- Lindenwood 38, Stony Brook 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Lindenwood, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 48.8 scored, 39.2 allowed
- Stony Brook, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 33.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Lindenwood
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier SpencerG | 26 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Malek ArchieG | 21 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Shamiere GreenG | 20 | 10.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Marsai MasonF | 19 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Makhan DioufF | 19 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Dom ClayG | 18 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Matar DiopF | 18 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Noah TaitzG | 18 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
Stony Brook
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan NdjongaF | 31 | 15.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Morris UgusukG | 29 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Collin O'ConnorG | 28 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Jaden DaughtryF | 26 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Ozgur CengizG | 25 | 12.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 3+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Ethan SimmonG | 17 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Quin GormanF | 13 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Tomas ValentinyF | 12 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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