Who will win Colgate vs Hofstra?
The model gives Hofstra a 71% chance to beat Colgate, with a projected score of Hofstra 75, Colgate 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hofstra | |||||
| ThomasG · 27 min | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 61% | |
| JeffersonG · 26 min | 10.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 10+ 51% | |
| Boyd IIIG · 24 min | 9.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 10+ 47% | |
| MooreG · 22 min | 8.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 10+ 34% | |
 Colgate | |||||
| AlekseyenkoF · 30 min | 17.8 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 20+ 38% | |
| WrightF · 27 min | 12.6 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 15+ 34% | |
| JonesG · 29 min | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 10+ 51% | |
| AhayereG · 26 min | 10.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 10+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Imanuel Zorgvol: Colgate 32%Hofstra 68%
The white mark is the call with him: Hofstra 71%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Hofstra without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hofstra | ||||
| Imanuel Zorgvol | 0.9 | 68% | −3 | 70–75 |
| Joshua DeCady | 0.8 | 69% | −2 | 70–75 |
| Tanner Thomas | 0.8 | 69% | −2 | 70–75 |
| Colgate | ||||
| Andrew Alekseyenko | 1.1 | 74% | +3 | 69–76 |
Change is in Hofstra's win chance, in points. Scores read Colgate, then Hofstra. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Colgate 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 59-90at St John'sDidn't cover +29.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 7L 74-77at DrexelDidn't cover −1.5 · Over 140.5
- Nov 2L 76-90at Washington
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 69.7 and allowing 85.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Hofstra 1-2WLL
- Nov 10L 63-85at Arizona StDidn't cover +18.5 · Over 133.5
- Nov 5L 58-60at PrincetonCovered +2.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 2W 97-51vs St. Joseph's Long Island
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 72.7 and allowing 65.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Colgate | Hofstra | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.5 192nd | 102.8 202nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.5 243rd | 105.5 122nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 68.9 337th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.0% 218th | 50.6% 179th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 178th | 49.4% 106th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.3% 93rd | 17.8% 151st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 85th | 30.8% 242nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 345th | 0.23 313th |
The widest gap: Hofstra's defense (122nd) against Colgate's offense (192nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Colgate 32, Hofstra 36
- First-half margin
- Hofstra by 3.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.8
- Projected second half
- Colgate 37, Hofstra 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Colgate, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 31.7 scored, 41.0 allowed
- Hofstra, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Colgate
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew AlekseyenkoF | 30 | 17.8 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 9+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Parker JonesG | 29 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Sam WrightF | 27 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Josh AhayereG | 26 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Blake ForrestG | 23 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Kingston McKoyG | 20 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jayden HarringtonG | 15 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Isaiah SkinnG | 11 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Hofstra
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner ThomasG | 27 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Nick JeffersonG | 26 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Trey Boyd IIIG | 24 | 9.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Joshua DeCadyF | 24 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Justin MooreG | 22 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Spence WeweF | 19 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 52% | |||||
| Deywilk TavarezG | 18 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Imanuel ZorgvolF | 15 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 54% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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