North Florida at C Arkansas
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Farris Center. North Florida our rank 222 · 3-1; C Arkansas our rank 122 · 2-1.
Who will win North Florida vs C Arkansas?
The model gives Central Arkansas a 87% chance to beat North Florida, with a projected score of C Arkansas 73, North Florida 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Arkansas | |||||
| ReeseG · 30 min | 14.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 15+ 43% | |
| EllisonF · 17 min | 11.0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| CookG · 28 min | 8.5 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 10+ 37% | |
| MierF · 24 min | 6.9 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 5+ 65% | |
| North Florida | |||||
| WaldonG · 20 min | 9.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 10+ 42% | |
| RatliffF · 23 min | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 10+ 39% | |
| StinsonG · 23 min | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 33% | |
| McGillF · 19 min | 7.7 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Laylah Reese: North Florida 16%C Arkansas 84%
The white mark is the call with her: C Arkansas 87%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | C Arkansas without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Arkansas | ||||
| Laylah Reese | 2.0 | 84% | −3 | 60–72 |
| Jenna Cook | 1.6 | 85% | −2 | 59–72 |
| Paris Santacaterina | 1.4 | 85% | −2 | 59–72 |
| Tiani Ellison | 1.3 | 85% | −2 | 59–72 |
| North Florida | ||||
| Brooke Winchester | 0.7 | 89% | +2 | 58–73 |
Change is in C Arkansas's win chance, in points. Scores read North Florida, then C Arkansas. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
North Florida 3-1LWWW
- Nov 12W 71-64at Little Rock
- Nov 10W 70-43vs Edward Waters
- Nov 7W 93-76vs Palm Beach Atlantic
- Nov 5L 63-74at Florida St
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 74.2 and allowing 64.2
C Arkansas 2-1WLW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 67.3 and allowing 53.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| North Florida | C Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.9 180th | 91.8 155th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.6 296th | 88.6 89th |
| Possessions a game | 72.6 129th | 70.8 296th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.5% 120th | 44.7% 230th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.1% 95th | 41.5% 16th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.7% 47th | 23.0% 138th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.4% 148th | 33.8% 133rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 232nd | 0.20 246th |
The widest gap: C Arkansas's offense (155th) against North Florida's defense (296th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- North Florida 27, C Arkansas 35
- First-half margin
- C Arkansas by 8.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.3
- Projected second half
- North Florida 32, C Arkansas 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- North Florida, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 34.5 scored, 28.0 allowed
- C Arkansas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.0 scored, 26.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
North Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa WashingtonG | 24 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jamisyn StinsonG | 23 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Belle RatliffF | 23 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Elle BlatchfordG | 22 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Alonya WaldonG | 20 | 9.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 58% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Brianna MeadG | 20 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Dezuray McGillF | 19 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 42% | |||||
| Mya MayberryG | 16 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
C Arkansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laylah ReeseG | 30 | 14.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Jenna CookG | 28 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Paris SantacaterinaG | 27 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Avery MierF | 24 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Linda AmaningF | 22 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Faith McCallopG | 19 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Tiani EllisonF | 17 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Alexis CoxG | 13 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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