North Florida at UCF
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:00 AM ET at Addition Financial Arena. North Florida our rank 222 · 3-1; UCF our rank 154 · 3-1.
Who will win North Florida vs UCF?
The model gives UCF a 81% chance to beat North Florida, with a projected score of UCF 75, North Florida 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | |||||
| Chandler-RobertsF · 32 min | 16.0 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 15+ 55% | |
| BlasighG · 33 min | 13.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 15+ 38% | |
| JonesG · 28 min | 12.0 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 10+ 62% | |
| RosebyG · 26 min | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 10+ 62% | |
| North Florida | |||||
| WaldonG · 20 min | 9.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 10+ 46% | |
| RatliffF · 23 min | 9.4 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 43% | |
| StinsonG · 23 min | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 10+ 37% | |
| McGillF · 19 min | 8.1 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Vittoria Blasigh: North Florida 22%UCF 78%
The white mark is the call with her: UCF 81%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UCF without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | ||||
| Vittoria Blasigh | 1.6 | 78% | −3 | 65–75 |
| Caitlyn Jones | 1.1 | 79% | −2 | 65–75 |
| Mahogany Chandler-Roberts | 1.0 | 79% | −2 | 65–75 |
| Key Roseby | 0.9 | 79% | −2 | 65–75 |
| North Florida | ||||
| Brooke Winchester | 0.7 | 83% | +2 | 64–76 |
Change is in UCF's win chance, in points. Scores read North Florida, then UCF. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
North Florida 3-1LWWW
- Nov 12W 71-64at Little Rock
- Nov 10W 70-43vs Edward Waters
- Nov 7W 93-76vs Palm Beach Atlantic
- Nov 5L 63-74at Florida St
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 74.2 and allowing 64.2
UCF 3-1WLWW
- Nov 11W 64-59vs Austin Peay
- Nov 9W 85-59vs South Alabama
- Nov 5L 65-95at Florida
- Nov 3W 85-56vs Florida A&M
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 74.8 and allowing 67.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| North Florida | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.9 180th | 93.4 135th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.6 296th | 94.6 184th |
| Possessions a game | 72.6 129th | 72.3 148th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.5% 120th | 49.4% 22nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.1% 95th | 44.0% 91st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.7% 47th | 24.9% 282nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.4% 148th | 29.8% 325th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 232nd | 0.22 129th |
The widest gap: UCF's offense (135th) against North Florida's defense (296th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- North Florida 30, UCF 36
- First-half margin
- UCF by 6.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.3
- Projected second half
- North Florida 34, UCF 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- North Florida, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 34.5 scored, 28.0 allowed
- UCF, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 35.8 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
North Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa WashingtonG | 24 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ ast 58% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jamisyn StinsonG | 23 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Belle RatliffF | 23 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Elle BlatchfordG | 22 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Alonya WaldonG | 20 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Brianna MeadG | 20 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ ast 58% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Dezuray McGillF | 19 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 45% | |||||
| Mya MayberryG | 16 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
UCF
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vittoria BlasighG | 33 | 13.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Mahogany Chandler-RobertsF | 32 | 16.0 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Caitlyn JonesG | 28 | 12.0 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 55% · 5+ ast 45% | |||||
| Candace KpetikouC | 28 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 7+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Key RosebyG | 26 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Nyla McFaddenG | 21 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Jasmynne GibsonF | 18 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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