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Probable Stats / Women's / Sunday, November 22

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West Florida at Texas A&M-CC

Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Hilliard Center. West Florida our rank 309 · 1-3; Texas A&M-CC our rank 341 · 1-1.

Who will win West Florida vs Texas A&M-CC?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives West Florida a 52% chance to beat Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, with a projected score of West Florida 67, Texas A&M-CC 66.

To winWest Florida 52%Texas A&M-CC 48%
Projected score67–66West Florida, then Texas A&M-CC
Margin0.5West Florida · no line posted
Total133.1no line posted
First half32–31West Florida ahead 49%
West Florida by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Texas A&M-CC by 30Model: West Florida by 0.5West Florida by 30by 10by 10Texas A&M-CC by 30Model: West Florida by 0.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
West Florida
TyreG · 34 min10.94.93.310+ 55%
JordanG · 25 min10.82.91.410+ 54%
ColemanG · 31 min9.84.32.410+ 47%
KennedyF · 28 min9.65.71.910+ 45%
Texas A&M-CC
Frances WillisG · 27 min9.33.63.110+ 43%
WilliamsF · 22 min7.15.21.95+ 66%
WalkerG · 21 min7.12.30.55+ 66%
MolderG · 26 min6.84.71.85+ 63%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    West Florida 1-3LLWL

    1. Nov 11L 58-86at Florida St
    2. Nov 9W 85-58vs Pensacola Christian
    3. Nov 5L 58-72at W Carolina
    4. Nov 3L 51-73at ETSU
    Last 4
    1–3, scoring 63.0 and allowing 72.2

    Texas A&M-CC 1-1WL

    1. Nov 8L 40-112at Baylor
    2. Nov 4W 76-36vs Our Lady of the Lake
    Last 2
    1–1, scoring 58.0 and allowing 74.0

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    West FloridaTexas A&M-CC
    Points scored per 100 possessions87.0 232nd78.8 324th
    Points allowed per 100105.2 350th102.1 326th
    Possessions a game71.4 234th71.6 219th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)44.2% 265th43.7% 294th
    Opponents' shooting44.4% 115th49.0% 343rd
    Turnovers, share of possessions23.0% 132nd24.5% 258th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.5% 145th31.8% 236th
    Free throws per shot0.24 53rd0.19 290th

    The widest gap: West Florida's offense (232nd) against Texas A&M-CC's defense (326th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    West Florida 32, Texas A&M-CC 31
    First-half margin
    West Florida by 0.3
    First-half points, both teams
    63.1
    Projected second half
    West Florida 35, Texas A&M-CC 35
    Second-half points, both teams
    70.0
    Tied at the half
    4%
    West Florida, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 4 · 30.0 scored, 36.0 allowed
    Texas A&M-CC, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 2 · 26.0 scored, 31.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    West Florida

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Annarose TyreG3410.94.93.30.8
    10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52%
    Nia ColemanG319.84.32.40.9
    10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 55%
    Finley KennedyF289.65.71.90.7
    10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 54%
    Janai JordanG2510.82.91.41.4
    10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 41%
    Ebba ZalamansF225.34.10.80.2
    5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 19%
    Kendall LacosteG175.21.70.81.1
    5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 61%
    Giselle EkeC165.63.10.90.0
    5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 24%
    Kayla WilliamsF122.72.40.40.1
    5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 40%

    Texas A&M-CC

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Laura Frances WillisG279.33.63.11.0
    10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 57%
    Sille-Liis MolderG266.84.71.80.7
    5+ pts 63% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 48%
    Naiya CarneyG266.12.61.10.4
    5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 34%
    Chelsy SingletonG235.53.91.60.8
    5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 50%
    Rayna WilliamsF227.15.21.90.0
    5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 53%
    Asha WalkerG217.12.30.51.5
    5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ threes 40%
    Caitlin LordF165.43.50.70.5
    5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 37%
    Lori ZlatoperF153.32.70.60.2
    5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 20%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sun, Nov 22

    All games
    1. 1 PMprojected 69-74Ohio State vs Texas, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 69-62Nebraska at Creighton, women's: game page
    3. 2:30 PMprojected 71-68Kansas vs S Dakota St, women's: game page
    4. 5 PMprojected 68-69Stanford at Portland, women's: game page
    5. 5:30 PMprojected 72-71UCLA at Tennessee, women's: game page
    6. 7:30 PMprojected 69-67Missouri vs Kansas St, women's: game page
    West Florida next: vs Florida A&M, Sun, Nov 15 · 83%Texas A&M-CC next: at Texas St, Fri, Nov 13 · 4%West Florida: schedule and oddsTexas A&M-CC: schedule and odds