Who will win Morgan St vs Loyola MD?
The model gives Loyola Maryland a 52% chance to beat Morgan State, with a projected score of Loyola MD 74, Morgan St 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Loyola MD | |||||
| RickettsG · 27 min | 16.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 15+ 58% | |
| HarrisonF · 25 min | 8.8 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 39% | |
| Berg-McLeanG · 30 min | 8.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 10+ 37% | |
| EmenaloF · 24 min | 7.3 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 5+ 67% | |
 Morgan St | |||||
| Worrell Jr.G · 30 min | 21.1 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 20+ 55% | |
| RichardG · 32 min | 13.6 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 15+ 40% | |
| KwartengG · 22 min | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 5+ 68% | |
| TraoreF · 24 min | 6.7 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Morgan St 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 70-85at UMBCDidn't cover +7.5 · Under 159.5
- Nov 7W 73-67at NiagaraCovered +3.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 4W 95-58vs Virginia Lynchburg
- Nov 2W 103-52vs Cheyney (PA)
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 85.2 and allowing 65.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Loyola MD 1-3LLWL
- Nov 12L 60-90at TowsonDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 133.5
- Nov 9W 106-64vs Washington Maryland
- Nov 6L 57-68at Mount St MarysDidn't cover +6.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 2L 58-80at Georgetown
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 70.2 and allowing 75.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Morgan St | Loyola MD | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.1 360th | 96.3 321st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.1 292nd | 115.0 337th |
| Possessions a game | 73.0 22nd | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.7% 304th | 48.8% 302nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.7% 128th | 50.7% 197th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.6% 323rd | 17.7% 140th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 97th | 30.5% 261st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.32 16th | 0.20 362nd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Morgan St 35, Loyola MD 35
- First-half margin
- Loyola MD by 0.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.5
- Projected second half
- Morgan St 39, Loyola MD 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Morgan St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 44.5 scored, 31.8 allowed
- Loyola MD, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 28.5 scored, 34.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Morgan St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith RichardG | 32 | 13.6 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Alfred Worrell Jr.G | 30 | 21.1 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 2.8 |
| 20+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 56% · 3+ threes 48% | |||||
| Trent EdwardsF | 24 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Ibrahima TraoreF | 24 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Jeremiah KwartengG | 22 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| John AwokeG | 22 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Oliver SpenceF | 10 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 40% | |||||
| Khali HortonF | 10 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Loyola MD
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Berg-McLeanG | 30 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 48% · 5+ ast 46% | |||||
| Leo RickettsG | 27 | 16.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| D'Andre HarrisonF | 25 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Sebastien EmenaloF | 24 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 67% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Everett BarnesF | 20 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Robbie Long IIIG | 19 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Abdullah AmzilF | 19 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Gage HowardF | 18 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
Missed the last game: Sebastien Emenalo (27 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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