Who will win Loyola MD vs Virginia?
The model gives Virginia a >99% chance to beat Loyola Maryland, with a projected score of Virginia 94, Loyola MD 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Virginia | |||||
| De RidderF · 23 min | 16.9 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 15+ 60% | |
| LewisG · 25 min | 13.6 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 15+ 40% | |
| MalloryG · 24 min | 13.6 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 15+ 40% | |
| GrunlohC · 24 min | 11.8 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 10+ 61% | |
 Loyola MD | |||||
| RickettsG · 25 min | 12.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 10+ 64% | |
| HarrisonF · 24 min | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 5+ 62% | |
| Berg-McLeanG · 27 min | 6.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 5+ 57% | |
| EmenaloF · 22 min | 5.4 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 5+ 50% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Thijs De Ridder: Loyola MD <1%Virginia >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Virginia >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Virginia without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | ||||
| Thijs De Ridder | 4.2 | >99% | 0 | 59–92 |
| Johann Grunloh | 4.0 | >99% | 0 | 59–92 |
| Chance Mallory | 3.9 | >99% | 0 | 59–92 |
| Sam Lewis | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 59–93 |
Change is in Virginia's win chance, in points. Scores read Loyola MD, then Virginia. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Loyola MD 1-3LLWL
- Nov 12L 60-90at TowsonDidn't cover +13.5 · Over 133.5
- Nov 9W 106-64vs Washington Maryland
- Nov 6L 57-68at Mount St MarysDidn't cover +6.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 2L 58-80at Georgetown
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 70.2 and allowing 75.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Virginia 4-0WWWW
- Nov 10W 95-61vs BucknellDidn't cover −38.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 8W 91-72vs ArkansasCovered −3.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 6W 97-72vs NortheasternDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 3W 89-60vs Drexel
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 93.0 and allowing 66.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Loyola MD | Virginia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.3 321st | 119.9 14th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.0 337th | 95.9 26th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 184th | 70.6 209th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.8% 302nd | 52.3% 71st |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.7% 197th | 50.9% 210th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.7% 140th | 18.3% 211th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.5% 261st | 36.0% 8th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 362nd | 0.23 327th |
The widest gap: Virginia's offense (14th) against Loyola MD's defense (337th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Loyola MD 25, Virginia 46
- First-half margin
- Virginia by 20.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Projected second half
- Loyola MD 32, Virginia 49
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Loyola MD, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 28.5 scored, 34.5 allowed
- Virginia, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 47.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Loyola MD
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Berg-McLeanG | 27 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Leo RickettsG | 25 | 12.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| D'Andre HarrisonF | 24 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Sebastien EmenaloF | 22 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Everett BarnesF | 20 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Abdullah AmzilF | 19 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Robbie Long IIIG | 19 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Gage HowardF | 18 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
Missed the last game: Sebastien Emenalo (27 min a game).
Virginia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LewisG | 25 | 13.6 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Johann GrunlohC | 24 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Chance MalloryG | 24 | 13.6 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 5+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Thijs De RidderF | 23 | 16.9 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Nolan AdekunleF | 22 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Kalu AnyaF | 14 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Elijah GertrudeG | 14 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ ast 56% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jan VideG | 13 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 60% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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