East Texas A&M at California
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at Haas Pavilion. East Texas A&M our rank 242 · 2-1; California our rank 105 · 2-2.
Who will win East Texas A&M vs California?
The model gives California a 90% chance to beat East Texas A&M, with a projected score of California 82, East Texas A&M 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | |||||
| IndrusaitisG · 29 min | 15.5 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 15+ 52% | |
| CooperG · 26 min | 15.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 15+ 51% | |
| RossG · 28 min | 10.0 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 10+ 48% | |
| WilkinsF · 24 min | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 10+ 45% | |
| East Texas A&M | |||||
| DoddG · 30 min | 15.6 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 15+ 52% | |
| DiakiteF · 31 min | 13.7 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 15+ 41% | |
| AldridgeF · 25 min | 12.1 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 10+ 62% | |
| DuchampF · 24 min | 7.8 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jake Wilkins: East Texas A&M 14%California 86%
The white mark is the call with him: California 90%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | California without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | ||||
| Jake Wilkins | 2.0 | 86% | −4 | 69–81 |
| Jordan Ross | 1.6 | 87% | −3 | 69–81 |
| Nojus Indrusaitis | 1.6 | 87% | −3 | 69–81 |
| Michael Cooper | 1.3 | 87% | −3 | 69–81 |
| East Texas A&M | ||||
| Alonzo Dodd | 1.0 | 91% | +1 | 67–82 |
Change is in California's win chance, in points. Scores read East Texas A&M, then California. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| East Texas A&M | California | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.0 270th | 109.8 93rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.5 209th | 105.4 120th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 238th | 71.2 133rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.6% 247th | 50.3% 201st |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.0% 35th | 51.0% 218th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.7% 327th | 17.8% 154th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.3% 5th | 29.2% 319th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 275th | 0.22 348th |
The widest gap: California's defense (120th) against East Texas A&M's offense (270th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- East Texas A&M 31, California 39
- First-half margin
- California by 7.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.3
- Projected second half
- East Texas A&M 37, California 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- East Texas A&M, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 29.3 allowed
- California, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 43.2 scored, 39.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
East Texas A&M
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed DiakiteF | 31 | 13.7 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Alonzo DoddG | 30 | 15.6 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 4+ ast 47% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Gasper SkorjancG | 28 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Bo AldridgeF | 25 | 12.1 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Thomas DuchampF | 24 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Maxime CarrioF | 18 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Amar HotF | 18 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Jaxson FordF | 17 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
California
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nojus IndrusaitisG | 29 | 15.5 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 54% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| Jordan RossG | 28 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 52% · 5+ ast 47% | |||||
| Michael CooperG | 26 | 15.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Jake WilkinsF | 24 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Mantas KocanasC | 22 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Sammie YeanayF | 20 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Semetri CarrG | 18 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jovani RuffG | 16 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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