CA Baptist v LMU
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Acrisure Arena. CA Baptist our rank 329 · 0-3; LMU our rank 161 · 1-3.
Who will win CA Baptist vs LMU?
The model gives Loyola Marymount a 80% chance to beat California Baptist, with a projected score of LMU 80, CA Baptist 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMU | |||||
| SensleyG · 31 min | 16.4 | 9.7 | 1.3 | 15+ 57% | |
| PorterF · 27 min | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 10+ 63% | |
| SigiscarF · 18 min | 9.9 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 10+ 47% | |
| WrightG · 29 min | 8.8 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 10+ 39% | |
| CA Baptist | |||||
| Coner Jr.G · 30 min | 12.2 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 10+ 63% | |
| StonkusG · 24 min | 8.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 35% | |
| MullerG · 29 min | 7.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 10+ 32% | |
| DuncanG · 22 min | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jevon Porter: CA Baptist 23%LMU 77%
The white mark is the call with him: LMU 80%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | LMU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMU | ||||
| Jevon Porter | 1.4 | 77% | −3 | 71–80 |
| Zion Sensley | 1.3 | 77% | −3 | 71–80 |
| Andy Sigiscar | 0.8 | 78% | −2 | 71–80 |
| Aaron McBride | 0.6 | 79% | −1 | 71–80 |
Change is in LMU's win chance, in points. Scores read CA Baptist, then LMU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
CA Baptist 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 62-81vs Chicago StDidn't cover −11.5 · Over 138.5
- Nov 6L 68-96at Oregon StDidn't cover +20.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 3L 63-71vs North Florida
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 64.3 and allowing 82.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| CA Baptist | LMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.6 295th | 107.1 123rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.9 335th | 110.6 245th |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 292nd | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.4% 322nd | 49.6% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 55.0% 360th | 53.9% 349th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.7% 260th | 17.0% 61st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.0% 351st | 34.9% 23rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 214th | 0.24 295th |
The widest gap: LMU's offense (123rd) against CA Baptist's defense (335th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- CA Baptist 33, LMU 38
- First-half margin
- LMU by 5.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.8
- Projected second half
- CA Baptist 38, LMU 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- CA Baptist, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 30.3 scored, 38.7 allowed
- LMU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 44.5 scored, 34.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
CA Baptist
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Coner Jr.G | 30 | 12.2 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jordan MullerG | 29 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ ast 39% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Justas StonkusG | 24 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Ethan DuncanG | 22 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Rene D'AmelioF | 18 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Jonas ZilinskasF | 17 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Steven Reynolds IIIG | 17 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Anton SafinF | 16 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
LMU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion SensleyG | 31 | 16.4 | 9.7 | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 10+ reb 49% · 3+ threes 51% | |||||
| Mazi MosleyG | 29 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| All WrightG | 29 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jevon PorterF | 27 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Jasai MilesG | 27 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Aaron McBrideF | 23 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Andy SigiscarF | 18 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Zamir PaschalG | 11 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 32% to play · 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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