Charleston So at Mercer
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Hawkins Arena. Charleston So our rank 261 · 1-2; Mercer our rank 163 · 2-3.
Who will win Charleston So vs Mercer?
The model gives Mercer a 76% chance to beat Charleston Southern, with a projected score of Mercer 83, Charleston So 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercer | |||||
| Perkins IIG · 30 min | 15.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 15+ 52% | |
| BoydF · 30 min | 12.4 | 7.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 65% | |
| GoodmanG · 27 min | 12.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 62% | |
| CherryG · 18 min | 11.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 10+ 57% | |
| Charleston So | |||||
| RuffoloG · 26 min | 12.6 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 15+ 34% | |
| McLambG · 27 min | 11.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 56% | |
| CrawfordG · 29 min | 10.3 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 10+ 50% | |
| HubbardG · 29 min | 10.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 10+ 49% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Karon Boyd: Charleston So 28%Mercer 72%
The white mark is the call with him: Mercer 76%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Mercer without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercer | ||||
| Karon Boyd | 1.4 | 72% | −4 | 76–82 |
| Brady Shoulders | 0.8 | 74% | −2 | 76–83 |
| Charleston So | ||||
| Mathok Majok | 0.6 | 77% | +1 | 75–83 |
Change is in Mercer's win chance, in points. Scores read Charleston So, then Mercer. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Charleston So 1-2LWL
- Nov 10L 64-82at Wake ForestCovered +18.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 5W 86-49vs Columbia International
- Nov 2L 71-98at South Florida
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 73.7 and allowing 76.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Mercer 2-3WLLWL
- Nov 12L 61-75at West VirginiaCovered +24.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 10W 97-91at GA SouthernCovered +1.5 · Over 165.5
- Nov 7L 76-88at DavidsonDidn't cover +11.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 5L 67-96at Virginia TechDidn't cover +20.5 · Over 154.5
- Nov 2W 90-53vs Reinhardt
- Last five
- 2–3, scoring 78.2 and allowing 80.6
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–2
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Charleston So | Mercer | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.9 273rd | 107.1 121st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.7 248th | 110.9 259th |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 29th | 71.5 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.4% 117th | 50.9% 150th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.7% 127th | 49.0% 67th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.5% 352nd | 16.9% 53rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.7% 186th | 35.0% 22nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 146th | 0.26 206th |
The widest gap: Mercer's offense (121st) against Charleston So's defense (248th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Charleston So 35, Mercer 39
- First-half margin
- Mercer by 4.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.3
- Projected second half
- Charleston So 40, Mercer 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Charleston So, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 29.0 scored, 35.0 allowed
- Mercer, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 5 · 32.6 scored, 35.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Charleston So
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson CrawfordG | 29 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Jacob TaylorG | 29 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| DJ HubbardG | 29 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jefferson McLambG | 27 | 11.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Anthony RuffoloG | 26 | 12.6 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 3+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Lase OlalereF | 23 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Nicholas ErricaG | 22 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Mathok MajokF | 17 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 46% | |||||
Mercer
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady ShouldersG | 32 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Quinton Perkins IIG | 30 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Karon BoydF | 30 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Derek GoodmanG | 27 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Makoi Mabor MakoiF | 26 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 7+ reb 55% | |||||
| KJ LamonteG | 19 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 53% to play · 10+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Shane CherryG | 18 | 11.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Sawyer MayhughF | 18 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 78% to play · 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Missed the last game: KJ Lamonte (23 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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