Denver at E Michigan
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Gervin GameAbove Center. Denver our rank 217 · 0-2; E Michigan our rank 223 · 2-1.
Who will win Denver vs E Michigan?
The model gives Eastern Michigan a 58% chance to beat Denver, with a projected score of E Michigan 74, Denver 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Michigan | |||||
| HabhabF · 26 min | 17.1 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 15+ 61% | |
| RichardsG · 21 min | 11.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 57% | |
| MartinG · 23 min | 10.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 50% | |
| BrockhoffF · 20 min | 10.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 48% | |
| Denver | |||||
| JohnsonG · 38 min | 20.0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 20+ 49% | |
| WysockiF · 31 min | 10.5 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 10+ 51% | |
| MartinG · 24 min | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 46% | |
| Wickstrom StumerF · 27 min | 6.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Mohammad Habhab: Denver 45%E Michigan 55%
The white mark is the call with him: E Michigan 58%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | E Michigan without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Michigan | ||||
| Mohammad Habhab | 1.0 | 55% | −3 | 72–74 |
| Kilian Brockhoff | 0.7 | 56% | −2 | 72–74 |
| Denver | ||||
| Carson Johnson | 0.9 | 62% | +4 | 71–75 |
Change is in E Michigan's win chance, in points. Scores read Denver, then E Michigan. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Denver 0-2LL
- Nov 7L 60-64at UC RiversideDidn't cover +1.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 2L 68-75at Wisconsin
- Last 2
- 0–2, scoring 64.0 and allowing 69.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
E Michigan 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 108-44vs Great Lakes Christian
- Nov 6L 53-76at XavierCovered +23.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 71-70at Coastal
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 77.3 and allowing 63.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Denver | E Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 222nd | 100.7 253rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.2 199th | 108.3 182nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 162nd | 48.6% 308th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.4% 20th | 50.1% 150th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 263rd | 18.6% 244th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 245th | 33.5% 81st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 159th | 0.29 52nd |
The widest gap: Denver's defense (199th) against E Michigan's offense (253rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Denver 34, E Michigan 35
- First-half margin
- E Michigan by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.6
- Projected second half
- Denver 38, E Michigan 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Denver, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 29.5 scored, 33.0 allowed
- E Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 38.3 scored, 30.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Denver
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson JohnsonG | 38 | 20.0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| 20+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Shaun WysockiF | 31 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Oskar Wickstrom StumerF | 27 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Kam MartinG | 24 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Charlie DimmockF | 18 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Logan ThreattG | 18 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Harry BatesF | 16 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Jordan RogersF | 16 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
E Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammad HabhabF | 26 | 17.1 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Braelon GreenG | 25 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 42% | |||||
| Jabri FitzpatrickG | 23 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jaiden MartinG | 23 | 10.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Kaden JohnsonF | 23 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Emanuel RichardsG | 21 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Kilian BrockhoffF | 20 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Gregory Lawson IIG | 16 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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