Washington St v Duke
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 11:00 PM ET at Acrisure Arena. Washington St our rank 172 · 0-3; Duke AP 2, our rank 1 · 2-1.
Who will win Washington St vs Duke?
The model gives Duke a >99% chance to beat Washington State, with a projected score of Duke 91, Washington St 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | |||||
| Ngongba IIC · 26 min | 15.1 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 15+ 50% | |
| BlackwellG · 26 min | 14.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 15+ 45% | |
| SarrF · 24 min | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| Boumtje BoumtjeC · 21 min | 9.7 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 46% | |
| Washington St | |||||
| HoustonG · 25 min | 10.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 54% | |
| HarrellG · 26 min | 10.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 49% | |
| HarrisonF · 23 min | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 38% | |
| AkinsG · 21 min | 6.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Patrick Ngongba II: Washington St 2%Duke 98%
The white mark is the call with him: Duke >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Duke without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | ||||
| Patrick Ngongba II | 5.9 | 98% | −2 | 64–88 |
| John Blackwell | 4.9 | 99% | −1 | 63–88 |
| Dame Sarr | 4.2 | 99% | −1 | 63–88 |
| Cayden Boozer | 4.2 | 99% | −1 | 63–88 |
| Washington St | ||||
| Ronnie Harrison | 1.0 | >99% | 0 | 60–91 |
| Sebastian Akins | 0.9 | >99% | 0 | 60–91 |
| Jaylen Harrell | 0.8 | >99% | 0 | 60–91 |
| Tyler Kropp | 0.7 | >99% | 0 | 60–91 |
Change is in Duke's win chance, in points. Scores read Washington St, then Duke. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Washington St 0-3LLL
- Nov 10L 71-72at DuquesneCovered +3.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 7L 71-83at High PointCovered +13.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 2L 61-76vs Davidson
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 67.7 and allowing 77.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Washington St | Duke | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.4 137th | 123.4 2nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.0 260th | 88.5 2nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.0 266th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 159th | 51.7% 97th |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.7% 358th | 48.2% 41st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 243rd | 18.9% 283rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.6% 31st | 35.9% 10th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 310th | 0.31 27th |
The widest gap: Duke's offense (2nd) against Washington St's defense (260th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Washington St 27, Duke 44
- First-half margin
- Duke by 16.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Projected second half
- Washington St 33, Duke 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Washington St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 32.0 allowed
- Duke, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 23.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Washington St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen HarrellG | 26 | 10.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Lazerek HoustonG | 25 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Ronnie HarrisonF | 23 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Sebastian AkinsG | 21 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ ast 56% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ladji DembeleF | 21 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Jamari PhillipsG | 19 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Casey JonesG | 18 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Tyler KroppF | 18 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Duke
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John BlackwellG | 26 | 14.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Patrick Ngongba IIC | 26 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 8+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Dame SarrF | 24 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Cayden BoozerG | 23 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 49% · 5+ ast 47% | |||||
| Caleb FosterG | 21 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Joaquim Boumtje BoumtjeC | 21 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Sebastian WilkinsF | 20 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Deron Rippey Jr.G | 16 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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