Who will win Drexel vs American?
The model gives Drexel a 66% chance to beat American University, with a projected score of Drexel 68, American 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Drexel | |||||
| McGurkG · 35 min | 15.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 15+ 51% | |
| RulloG · 35 min | 11.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 10+ 59% | |
| WatkinsG · 26 min | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 36% | |
| Garcia RoigG · 32 min | 7.9 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 10+ 33% | |
 American | |||||
| DriscollG · 32 min | 17.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 15+ 61% | |
| VišnjevacG · 31 min | 10.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 10+ 52% | |
| WrightF · 28 min | 10.0 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 49% | |
| KoepkeF · 24 min | 9.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Laine McGurk: Drexel 60%American 40%
The white mark is the call with her: Drexel 66%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Drexel without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drexel | ||||
| Laine McGurk | 1.9 | 60% | −6 | 67–64 |
| Molly Rullo | 0.9 | 63% | −3 | 68–63 |
| Julia Garcia Roig | 0.7 | 64% | −2 | 68–63 |
Change is in Drexel's win chance, in points. Scores read Drexel, then American. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Drexel 1-2WLL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 57.0 and allowing 66.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Drexel | American | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.7 132nd | 86.0 254th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.2 258th | 101.9 324th |
| Possessions a game | 68.3 362nd | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.6% 233rd | 47.3% 80th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.8% 304th | 43.8% 74th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.6% 38th | 24.0% 227th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.9% 285th | 33.3% 154th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 313th | 0.22 101st |
The widest gap: Drexel's offense (132nd) against American's defense (324th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Drexel 33, American 29
- First-half margin
- Drexel by 3.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.0
- Projected second half
- Drexel 36, American 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Drexel, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 29.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
- American, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 1 · 30.0 scored, 46.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Drexel
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly RulloG | 35 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Laine McGurkG | 35 | 15.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Julia Garcia RoigG | 32 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 59% · 6+ ast 51% | |||||
| Bria WatkinsG | 26 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Molly LavinF | 25 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Megan RulloG | 18 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Aisha DaboF | 16 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
American
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly DriscollG | 32 | 17.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 3+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Nina VišnjevacG | 31 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Lauren WrightF | 28 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Madisyn Moore-NicholsonG | 24 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Grace KoepkeF | 24 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Kayla GreyvensteynG | 19 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ ast 40% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Lexi SalazarG | 16 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 2+ ast 60% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Elizabeth ArcherG | 16 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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