Pacific at Sacramento St
Women's · Friday, November 20, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Hornet Pavilion. Pacific our rank 155 · 1-1; Sacramento St our rank 193 · 3-1.
Who will win Pacific vs Sacramento St?
The model gives Pacific a 50% chance to beat Sacramento State, with a projected score of Pacific 65, Sacramento St 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific | |||||
| MindermannG · 29 min | 12.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 10+ 63% | |
| RiveraG · 24 min | 10.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 52% | |
| NworieC · 24 min | 8.6 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 38% | |
| DyerG · 21 min | 6.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 5+ 61% | |
| Sacramento St | |||||
| AkridgeG · 33 min | 15.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 15+ 50% | |
| PictonG · 36 min | 14.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 15+ 48% | |
| AbiaraF · 25 min | 6.3 | 6.4 | 0.4 | 5+ 59% | |
| SavicG · 28 min | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Victoria Rivera: Pacific 43%Sacramento St 57%
The white mark is the call with her: Pacific 50%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Pacific without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific | ||||
| Victoria Rivera | 1.8 | 43% | −7 | 64–66 |
| JoJo Nworie | 1.8 | 44% | −6 | 64–66 |
| Yana Karamfilova | 1.0 | 46% | −4 | 64–65 |
| Sophia Mindermann | 0.8 | 47% | −3 | 64–65 |
| Sacramento St | ||||
| Jenessa Cotton | 0.9 | 53% | +3 | 65–64 |
| Natalie Picton | 0.8 | 53% | +3 | 65–64 |
| Alexis Hess | 0.6 | 52% | +2 | 65–64 |
Change is in Pacific's win chance, in points. Scores read Pacific, then Sacramento St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Pacific 1-1WL
- Nov 5L 54-75at Washington
- Nov 2W 105-42vs Simpson (CA)
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 79.5 and allowing 58.5
Sacramento St 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 60-67at Buffalo
- Nov 9W 82-52vs Cal State East Bay
- Nov 7W 70-60at Nevada
- Nov 3W 67-61at UT Arlington
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 69.8 and allowing 60.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Pacific | Sacramento St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.4 157th | 88.8 199th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.8 147th | 95.1 195th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 70.8 296th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.3% 187th | 45.1% 198th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.6% 129th | 44.0% 91st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.2% 248th | 22.7% 116th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 194th | 35.2% 72nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 199th | 0.24 53rd |
The widest gap: Pacific's defense (147th) against Sacramento St's offense (199th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Pacific 31, Sacramento St 31
- First-half margin
- Tied
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.3
- Projected second half
- Pacific 34, Sacramento St 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Pacific, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 35.5 scored, 28.5 allowed
- Sacramento St, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 37.2 scored, 29.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Pacific
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia MindermannG | 29 | 12.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Stella SzaboG | 26 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Victoria RiveraG | 24 | 10.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| JoJo NworieC | 24 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Yana KaramfilovaF | 21 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Jordyn DyerG | 21 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| LaMiracle LebonF | 19 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Liv YergensenG | 16 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
Sacramento St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie PictonG | 36 | 14.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 3+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Koko AkridgeG | 33 | 15.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 3+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jelena SavicG | 28 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Elizabeth AbiaraF | 25 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 45% | |||||
| Jenessa CottonF | 19 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 58% | |||||
| Tali Fa'iG | 18 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Alexis HessF | 14 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Pinja PaananenF | 12 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 72% to play · 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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