Sacramento St at Niagara
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Gallagher Center. Sacramento St our rank 193 · 3-1; Niagara our rank 362 · 0-4.
Who will win Sacramento St vs Niagara?
The model gives Sacramento State a 98% chance to beat Niagara, with a projected score of Sacramento St 75, Niagara 50.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento St | |||||
| AkridgeG · 30 min | 15.5 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 15+ 52% | |
| PictonG · 32 min | 14.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 15+ 49% | |
| AbiaraF · 23 min | 6.8 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 5+ 63% | |
| SavicG · 26 min | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 5+ 60% | |
| Niagara | |||||
| HarunaF · 23 min | 7.1 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 5+ 66% | |
| RiojaF · 21 min | 6.4 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 5+ 60% | |
| MooreG · 29 min | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 5+ 59% | |
| BilaG · 25 min | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 5+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jenessa Cotton: Sacramento St 97%Niagara 3%
The white mark is the call with her: Sacramento St 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Sacramento St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento St | ||||
| Jenessa Cotton | 0.9 | 97% | −1 | 74–51 |
| Natalie Picton | 0.8 | 97% | −1 | 74–51 |
| Alexis Hess | 0.6 | 97% | −1 | 74–51 |
Change is in Sacramento St's win chance, in points. Scores read Sacramento St, then Niagara. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Sacramento St 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 60-67at Buffalo
- Nov 9W 82-52vs Cal State East Bay
- Nov 7W 70-60at Nevada
- Nov 3W 67-61at UT Arlington
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 69.8 and allowing 60.0
Niagara 0-4LLLL
- Nov 11L 40-71vs Stony Brook
- Nov 8L 52-71vs New Hampshire
- Nov 5L 53-78at UMass Lowell
- Nov 2L 40-70at Fordham
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 46.2 and allowing 72.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Sacramento St | Niagara | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.8 199th | 66.9 363rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.1 195th | 106.4 355th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 296th | 74.1 43rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.1% 198th | 41.5% 350th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.0% 91st | 48.2% 320th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.7% 116th | 27.4% 348th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.2% 72nd | 30.3% 306th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 53rd | 0.21 193rd |
The widest gap: Sacramento St's defense (195th) against Niagara's offense (363rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Sacramento St 37, Niagara 23
- First-half margin
- Sacramento St by 14.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.3
- Projected second half
- Sacramento St 38, Niagara 28
- Second-half points, both teams
- 65.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Sacramento St, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 37.2 scored, 29.5 allowed
- Niagara, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 23.0 scored, 40.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Sacramento St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie PictonG | 32 | 14.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Koko AkridgeG | 30 | 15.5 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 4+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jelena SavicG | 26 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Elizabeth AbiaraF | 23 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 51% | |||||
| Jenessa CottonF | 19 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Tali Fa'iG | 18 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Alexis HessF | 14 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Pinja PaananenF | 13 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 72% to play · 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Niagara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalyn MooreG | 29 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Jisca BilaG | 25 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Kenedie HarunaF | 23 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Katarina VeljovicG | 23 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Alejandra RiojaF | 21 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Violeta RojasG | 20 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Kimora BerryG | 19 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Kennedy ColesG | 14 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Missed the last game: Kimora Berry (22 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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