Who will win Niagara vs Michigan?
The model gives Michigan a >99% chance to beat Niagara, with a projected score of Michigan 107, Niagara 28.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michigan | |||||
| OlsonG · 28 min | 21.1 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 20+ 55% | |
| SwordsG · 28 min | 16.7 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 15+ 59% | |
| DelfosseG · 27 min | 16.0 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 15+ 55% | |
| LoughridgeG · 28 min | 13.5 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 15+ 40% | |
 Niagara | |||||
| HarunaF · 23 min | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 5+ 40% | |
| RiojaF · 21 min | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 5+ 36% | |
| MooreG · 27 min | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 5+ 34% | |
| BilaG · 24 min | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 5+ 22% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Olivia Olson: Niagara <1%Michigan >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Michigan >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Michigan without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | ||||
| Olivia Olson | 8.7 | >99% | 0 | 33–103 |
| Te'Yala Delfosse | 7.5 | >99% | 0 | 32–103 |
| Syla Swords | 7.0 | >99% | 0 | 32–104 |
| Kendall Dudley | 5.3 | >99% | 0 | 31–104 |
Change is in Michigan's win chance, in points. Scores read Niagara, then Michigan. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Niagara 0-4LLLL
- Nov 11L 40-71vs Stony Brook
- Nov 8L 52-71vs New Hampshire
- Nov 5L 53-78at UMass Lowell
- Nov 2L 40-70at Fordham
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 46.2 and allowing 72.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Niagara | Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 66.9 363rd | 118.5 5th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.4 355th | 72.2 3rd |
| Possessions a game | 74.1 43rd | 73.7 57th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 41.5% 350th | 50.2% 10th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.2% 320th | 42.6% 28th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 27.4% 348th | 21.6% 38th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.3% 306th | 35.1% 77th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 193rd | 0.20 236th |
The widest gap: Michigan's defense (3rd) against Niagara's offense (363rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Niagara 9, Michigan 55
- First-half margin
- Michigan by 45.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.2
- Projected second half
- Niagara 19, Michigan 52
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Niagara, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 23.0 scored, 40.0 allowed
- Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.3 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Niagara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalyn MooreG | 27 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Jisca BilaG | 24 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Kenedie HarunaF | 23 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Katarina VeljovicG | 23 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 2+ reb 48% | |||||
| Alejandra RiojaF | 21 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 58% | |||||
| Violeta RojasG | 20 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Kimora BerryG | 19 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 50% to play · 2+ reb 42% | |||||
| Kennedy ColesG | 15 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
Missed the last game: Kimora Berry (22 min a game).
Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas LoughridgeG | 28 | 13.5 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 45% · 8+ ast 53% | |||||
| Syla SwordsG | 28 | 16.7 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Olivia OlsonG | 28 | 21.1 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 1.5 |
| 20+ pts 55% · 7+ reb 48% · 6+ ast 52% | |||||
| Te'Yala DelfosseG | 27 | 16.0 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 47% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Kendall DudleyG | 24 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Ashley SofilkanichF | 17 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Courtney OgdenG | 17 | 10.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Devin CosgriffG | 14 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…