Who will win Texas St vs Lamar?
The model gives Texas State a 65% chance to beat Lamar, with a projected score of Texas St 68, Lamar 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Texas St | |||||
| BurksG · 28 min | 17.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 15+ 63% | |
| HendersonG · 29 min | 16.9 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 15+ 60% | |
| AndersonF · 21 min | 11.8 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 10+ 61% | |
| CeppellottiF · 30 min | 9.4 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 10+ 44% | |
 Lamar | |||||
| FormanG · 28 min | 11.2 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 10+ 57% | |
| AlexanderG · 24 min | 10.2 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| OlengaF · 24 min | 10.1 | 7.4 | 0.2 | 10+ 49% | |
| HubbardG · 20 min | 7.8 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Crystal Henderson: Texas St 60%Lamar 40%
The white mark is the call with her: Texas St 65%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Texas St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | ||||
| Crystal Henderson | 1.8 | 60% | −5 | 67–64 |
| Kyra Anderson | 1.4 | 61% | −4 | 67–64 |
| Lay Fantroy | 1.4 | 61% | −4 | 67–64 |
| Saniya Burks | 1.1 | 62% | −3 | 68–64 |
| Lamar | ||||
| Solenne Olenga | 0.9 | 68% | +3 | 69–63 |
Change is in Texas St's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas St, then Lamar. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Texas St 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 106-51at Chicago St
- Nov 4W 69-51vs Long Island
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 87.5 and allowing 51.0
Lamar 2-2WLLW
- Nov 12W 107-25vs Arlington Baptist
- Nov 9L 28-78at Texas Tech
- Nov 5L 64-79at UT Arlington
- Nov 2W 104-35vs Louisiana Christian
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 75.8 and allowing 54.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Texas St | Lamar | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.3 147th | 85.0 262nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.4 158th | 97.3 244th |
| Possessions a game | 72.5 135th | 71.5 225th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.9% 12th | 41.5% 348th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 160th | 47.9% 310th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 143rd | 23.4% 176th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.3% 110th | 34.6% 96th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 74th | 0.20 274th |
The widest gap: Texas St's defense (158th) against Lamar's offense (262nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Texas St 33, Lamar 30
- First-half margin
- Texas St by 2.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.2
- Projected second half
- Texas St 36, Lamar 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Texas St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 46.0 scored, 27.0 allowed
- Lamar, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 39.0 scored, 27.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Texas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia CeppellottiF | 30 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Crystal HendersonG | 29 | 16.9 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 56% | |||||
| Saniya BurksG | 28 | 17.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 55% · 3+ threes 46% | |||||
| Lay FantroyG | 22 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Kyra AndersonF | 21 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 54% | |||||
| Hayden HearstF | 15 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
| Addison CarrC | 14 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Emma PiqueG | 13 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Lamar
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamryn WilsonG | 29 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Shaila FormanG | 28 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Jada GravesG | 26 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Jacei DenleyG | 25 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Solenne OlengaF | 24 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 8+ reb 44% | |||||
| Kennedi AlexanderG | 24 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Larissa HubbardG | 20 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Jordan PeteG | 15 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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