Indiana v Mississippi St
Women's · Friday, November 27, 2026, 11:00 AM ET at Suncoast Credit Union Arena. Indiana our rank 40 · 3-0; Mississippi St our rank 31 · 3-0.
Who will win Indiana vs Mississippi St?
The model gives Mississippi State a 56% chance to beat Indiana, with a projected score of Mississippi St 71, Indiana 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St | |||||
| NwaedoziF · 25 min | 15.0 | 11.1 | 1.0 | 15+ 49% | |
| FrancisF · 25 min | 10.8 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 54% | |
| MacktoonG · 16 min | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 34% | |
| SmallwoodG · 21 min | 7.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 5+ 69% | |
| Indiana | |||||
| Socka-NguemenF · 24 min | 11.5 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 10+ 59% | |
| MakaluskyF · 25 min | 10.4 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 10+ 51% | |
| BeaumontG · 21 min | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 10+ 36% | |
| HareG · 30 min | 8.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Favour Nwaedozi: Indiana 62%Mississippi St 38%
The white mark is the call with her: Mississippi St 56%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Mississippi St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St | ||||
| Favour Nwaedozi | 5.0 | 38% | −18 | 72–68 |
| Madison Francis | 4.6 | 40% | −16 | 71–69 |
| Reese Beaty | 3.8 | 43% | −13 | 71–69 |
| Aryss Macktoon | 2.5 | 48% | −8 | 70–70 |
| Indiana | ||||
| Jess Petrie | 3.3 | 68% | +12 | 68–73 |
| Zania Socka-Nguemen | 3.2 | 68% | +12 | 68–73 |
| Malia Samuels | 3.0 | 67% | +11 | 68–72 |
| Kenzie Hare | 3.0 | 67% | +11 | 68–72 |
Change is in Mississippi St's win chance, in points. Scores read Indiana, then Mississippi St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Indiana 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 86.3 and allowing 53.7
Mississippi St 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 87.0 and allowing 50.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Indiana | Mississippi St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.7 33rd | 103.1 49th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 84.2 55th | 78.5 14th |
| Possessions a game | 72.3 148th | 74.6 20th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.4% 37th | 48.0% 50th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.0% 85th | 39.8% 4th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.0% 61st | 24.2% 243rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.3% 109th | 36.8% 33rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 43rd | 0.19 322nd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Indiana 33, Mississippi St 34
- First-half margin
- Mississippi St by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.4
- Projected second half
- Indiana 36, Mississippi St 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Indiana, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 23.7 allowed
- Mississippi St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 22.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenzie HareG | 30 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Malia SamuelsG | 25 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Maya MakaluskyF | 25 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Zania Socka-NguemenF | 24 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Lenee BeaumontG | 21 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Addy NyemchekF | 20 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Jess PetrieF | 18 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Alisa WilliamsF | 16 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
Mississippi St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reese BeatyG | 29 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 40% · 5+ ast 46% | |||||
| Favour NwaedoziF | 25 | 15.0 | 11.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 11+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Madison FrancisF | 25 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Cali SmallwoodG | 21 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Tootie LockettG | 20 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Macie PhiferG | 20 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Melissa GuilletG | 17 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Aryss MacktoonG | 16 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…