Who will win Colorado vs Oregon?
The model gives Oregon a 52% chance to beat Colorado, with a projected score of Oregon 68, Colorado 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oregon | |||||
| FisoG · 34 min | 15.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 15+ 50% | |
| EtuteF · 28 min | 15.0 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 15+ 49% | |
| LongG · 30 min | 9.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 10+ 47% | |
| HeyerF · 31 min | 9.6 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 45% | |
 Colorado | |||||
| GreerF · 27 min | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 15+ 37% | |
| WalkerG · 27 min | 10.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 10+ 55% | |
| AdlerC · 18 min | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 40% | |
| SandersG · 26 min | 8.7 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 10+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ehis Etute: Colorado 68%Oregon 32%
The white mark is the call with her: Oregon 52%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Oregon without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | ||||
| Ehis Etute | 5.7 | 32% | −20 | 70–65 |
| Katie Fiso | 5.2 | 34% | −18 | 70–65 |
| Ari Long | 3.9 | 38% | −14 | 69–66 |
| Mallory Heyer | 3.9 | 38% | −14 | 69–66 |
| Colorado | ||||
| Zyanna Walker | 3.9 | 66% | +14 | 65–70 |
| Logyn Greer | 3.8 | 66% | +14 | 65–70 |
| Kennedy Sanders | 3.2 | 64% | +12 | 66–69 |
| Anete Adler | 2.1 | 60% | +8 | 66–69 |
Change is in Oregon's win chance, in points. Scores read Colorado, then Oregon. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Colorado 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 73.3 and allowing 49.7
Oregon 3-1WWLW
- Nov 11W 81-56at Vermont
- Nov 9L 74-81at Grand CanyonDidn't cover −9.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 6W 64-57vs Washington St
- Nov 2W 87-54vs Hawai'i
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 76.5 and allowing 62.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Colorado | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.9 52nd | 108.1 24th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 79.2 19th | 83.7 51st |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 72.4 144th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.6% 116th | 47.2% 82nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.0% 87th | 44.1% 96th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.4% 88th | 21.6% 37th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 146th | 35.9% 52nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 190th | 0.20 244th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Colorado 32, Oregon 32
- First-half margin
- Oregon by 0.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.0
- Projected second half
- Colorado 35, Oregon 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Colorado, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 36.3 scored, 17.3 allowed
- Oregon, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 33.8 scored, 37.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Colorado
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zyanna WalkerG | 27 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Logyn GreerF | 27 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Kennedy SandersG | 26 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Mecailin MarshallG | 25 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Anete AdlerC | 18 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Claire O'ConnorG | 17 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Jade CrookC | 17 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
| Kira ReynoldsF | 11 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
Oregon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie FisoG | 34 | 15.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 48% · 5+ ast 48% | |||||
| Mallory HeyerF | 31 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Ari LongG | 30 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Ehis EtuteF | 28 | 15.0 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 11+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Avary CainG | 25 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Brooklynn HaywoodG | 22 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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