Who will win Butler vs UNLV?
The model gives Butler a 58% chance to beat UNLV, with a projected score of Butler 70, UNLV 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Butler | |||||
| JacksonG · 32 min | 12.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 10+ 62% | |
| ValeroG · 29 min | 11.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| SingerG · 30 min | 9.6 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 10+ 45% | |
| JacksonG · 23 min | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 10+ 40% | |
 UNLV | |||||
| LottG · 34 min | 15.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 15+ 50% | |
| RolandF · 30 min | 12.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 10+ 63% | |
| ConstantG · 29 min | 9.5 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 10+ 44% | |
| WashenitzG · 24 min | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tamar Singer: Butler 46%UNLV 54%
The white mark is the call with her: Butler 58%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Butler without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butler | ||||
| Tamar Singer | 3.6 | 46% | −12 | 69–70 |
| Saniya Jackson | 2.7 | 50% | −8 | 69–69 |
| Nevaeh Jackson | 2.6 | 50% | −8 | 69–69 |
| Lili Krasovec | 2.3 | 51% | −7 | 69–69 |
| UNLV | ||||
| Meadow Roland | 3.4 | 68% | +10 | 72–66 |
| Jasmyn Lott | 2.4 | 66% | +8 | 72–67 |
| Marley Washenitz | 2.2 | 65% | +7 | 71–67 |
| Norah Moo | 1.8 | 64% | +6 | 71–67 |
Change is in Butler's win chance, in points. Scores read Butler, then UNLV. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Butler 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 68-61vs N Dakota St
- Nov 8W 74-42at C Michigan
- Nov 5W 104-57vs Lipscomb
- Nov 2W 108-71vs Tennessee Tech
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 88.5 and allowing 57.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Butler | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.4 65th | 98.0 90th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 85.1 57th | 90.1 110th |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 84th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.2% 42nd | 43.3% 304th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.7% 73rd | 45.7% 192nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 123rd | 24.5% 260th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.8% 137th | 35.5% 57th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 182nd | 0.23 81st |
The widest gap: Butler's offense (65th) against UNLV's defense (110th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Butler 33, UNLV 32
- First-half margin
- Butler by 1.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.5
- Projected second half
- Butler 37, UNLV 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Butler, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 37.8 scored, 24.8 allowed
- UNLV, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.0 scored, 35.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Butler
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevaeh JacksonG | 32 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Tamar SingerG | 30 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 45% · 8+ ast 47% | |||||
| Judit ValeroG | 29 | 11.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Saniya JacksonG | 23 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Taya EllisF | 19 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Lili KrasovecF | 18 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Karina BystryG | 17 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Laniah WillsG | 14 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
UNLV
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmyn LottG | 34 | 15.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Meadow RolandF | 30 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jayla ConstantG | 29 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Norah MooF | 26 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Marley WashenitzG | 24 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Trystan JamesF | 22 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Bergan KinnebrewG | 22 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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