IU Indy v MD Eastern
Sunday, November 22, 2026, 4:30 PM ET at Zidian Family Arena at Beeghly Center. IU Indy our rank 295 · 3-0; MD Eastern our rank 346 · 1-4.
Who will win IU Indy vs MD Eastern?
The model gives IU Indianapolis a 65% chance to beat Maryland Eastern Shore, with a projected score of IU Indy 76, MD Eastern 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IU Indy | |||||
| EtchisonG · 27 min | 15.5 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 15+ 52% | |
| TinsleyF · 26 min | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 63% | |
| StackhouseF · 18 min | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 41% | |
| HeissG · 23 min | 8.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 10+ 36% | |
| MD Eastern | |||||
| GardnerG · 34 min | 18.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 20+ 41% | |
| GriffinG · 32 min | 16.1 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 15+ 55% | |
| ColeF · 26 min | 10.0 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 10+ 48% | |
| MooreG · 28 min | 6.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Gus Etchison: IU Indy 63%MD Eastern 37%
The white mark is the call with him: IU Indy 65%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | IU Indy without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IU Indy | ||||
| Gus Etchison | 0.6 | 63% | −2 | 76–72 |
Change is in IU Indy's win chance, in points. Scores read IU Indy, then MD Eastern. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
IU Indy 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 74-70vs S IndianaDidn't cover −8.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 7W 75-74vs UT MartinCovered +1.5 · Under 171.5
- Nov 2W 113-76vs Miami (OH) Middletown
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 87.3 and allowing 73.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
MD Eastern 1-4LLWLL
- Nov 12L 47-67at Rhode IslandCovered +23.5 · Under 136.5
- Nov 10L 54-82at Boston CollegeDidn't cover +26.5 · Over 128.5
- Nov 7W 81-55vs Cheyney (PA)
- Nov 4L 49-63at High Point
- Nov 2L 62-83at Wake Forest
- Last five
- 1–4, scoring 58.6 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| IU Indy | MD Eastern | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.2 217th | 92.7 359th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.3 341st | 111.6 281st |
| Possessions a game | 73.3 14th | 68.3 357th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.9% 337th | 47.7% 341st |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.7% 271st | 49.3% 98th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 38th | 18.5% 229th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 245th | 30.3% 268th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 112th | 0.26 185th |
The widest gap: IU Indy's offense (217th) against MD Eastern's defense (281st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- IU Indy 36, MD Eastern 34
- First-half margin
- IU Indy by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.4
- Projected second half
- IU Indy 40, MD Eastern 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- IU Indy, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
- MD Eastern, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 5 · 28.4 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
IU Indy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus EtchisonG | 27 | 15.5 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Kameron TinsleyF | 26 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Precious IdiaruF | 24 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Peyton HeissG | 23 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Billy SmithG | 21 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Manasseh StackhouseF | 18 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jason Clarke Jr.G | 17 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Reece HagyF | 15 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
Missed the last game: Trey Drexler (18 min a game).
MD Eastern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby GardnerG | 34 | 18.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 20+ pts 41% · 4+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Isaiah GriffinG | 32 | 16.1 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Saadiq MooreG | 28 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 49% to play · 5+ pts 61% · 3+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Alvin ColeF | 26 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Lucius Gibson-SavadelF | 25 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Levi BeckwithSF | 24 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Victor EzehG | 16 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ebenezer OgohC | 12 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 40% | |||||
Missed the last game: Saadiq Moore (30 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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