UMass Lowell at Cincinnati
Sunday, November 22, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Fifth Third Arena. UMass Lowell our rank 284 · 3-1; Cincinnati our rank 23 · 2-1.
Who will win UMass Lowell vs Cincinnati?
The model gives Cincinnati a >99% chance to beat UMass Lowell, with a projected score of Cincinnati 87, UMass Lowell 56.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | |||||
| RileyG · 24 min | 13.3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 15+ 39% | |
| Collins Jr.G · 26 min | 12.7 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 15+ 35% | |
| ColvinG · 23 min | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 10+ 61% | |
| TejadaF · 22 min | 10.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 10+ 52% | |
| UMass Lowell | |||||
| HarrisF · 27 min | 10.6 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 10+ 53% | |
| OkojieF · 27 min | 8.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 10+ 38% | |
| NewtonG · 27 min | 7.9 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 10+ 33% | |
| CannadyG · 21 min | 6.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without MJ Collins Jr.: UMass Lowell 1%Cincinnati 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Cincinnati >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Cincinnati without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | ||||
| MJ Collins Jr. | 3.8 | 99% | −1 | 58–85 |
| Tylen Riley | 3.0 | 99% | −1 | 58–86 |
| Myles Colvin | 2.5 | 99% | −1 | 58–86 |
| Amani Lyles | 2.3 | 99% | −1 | 58–86 |
Change is in Cincinnati's win chance, in points. Scores read UMass Lowell, then Cincinnati. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UMass Lowell 3-1WWWL
- Nov 11L 62-72at UMassDidn't cover +7.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 8W 63-61vs MaristCovered −1.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 5W 71-61at MerrimackCovered +9.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 2W 121-57vs Rivier
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 79.2 and allowing 62.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 3 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UMass Lowell | Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.4 297th | 113.7 62nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.8 251st | 91.7 8th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 133rd | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.0% 331st | 49.4% 255th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 82nd | 49.5% 108th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 15.2% 2nd | 18.3% 207th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.9% 328th | 32.8% 118th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 204th | 0.23 329th |
The widest gap: Cincinnati's defense (8th) against UMass Lowell's offense (297th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UMass Lowell 25, Cincinnati 42
- First-half margin
- Cincinnati by 16.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.4
- Projected second half
- UMass Lowell 31, Cincinnati 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UMass Lowell, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 41.2 scored, 28.8 allowed
- Cincinnati, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 31.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UMass Lowell
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian JonesG | 28 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ ast 39% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Victor OkojieF | 27 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Jayden HarrisF | 27 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jakai NewtonG | 27 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Isaiah WalterG | 23 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Jasiah CannadyG | 21 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Elhadji DialloF | 16 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 48% | |||||
| Kenyon GilesG | 13 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Cincinnati
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MJ Collins Jr.G | 26 | 12.7 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Tylen RileyG | 24 | 13.3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 59% · 4+ ast 59% | |||||
| Myles ColvinG | 23 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Tyler TejadaF | 22 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Eric MahaffeyG | 20 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Amani LylesF | 17 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| David IwezeF | 16 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Adlan ElaminF | 14 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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