Holy Cross at Dartmouth
Wednesday, November 25, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Leede Arena. Holy Cross our rank 353 · 0-3; Dartmouth our rank 200 · 3-1.
Who will win Holy Cross vs Dartmouth?
The model gives Dartmouth a 89% chance to beat Holy Cross, with a projected score of Dartmouth 81, Holy Cross 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dartmouth | |||||
| McNameeG · 26 min | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 15+ 38% | |
| HiattG · 25 min | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 46% | |
| StrelnikovC · 16 min | 9.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 46% | |
| AbusaraG · 23 min | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 10+ 32% | |
| Holy Cross | |||||
| WilsonG · 28 min | 13.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 15+ 39% | |
| AlijosiusG · 20 min | 7.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 10+ 32% | |
| HansonG · 24 min | 7.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 31% | |
| HareF · 22 min | 7.0 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without CJ Aldrich III: Holy Cross 12%Dartmouth 88%
The white mark is the call with him: Dartmouth 89%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Dartmouth without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dartmouth | ||||
| CJ Aldrich III | 0.8 | 88% | −1 | 68–81 |
| Jake Pollack | 0.6 | 88% | −1 | 68–81 |
| Anton Strelnikov | 0.6 | 88% | −1 | 68–81 |
| Cameron McNamee | 0.5 | 88% | −1 | 68–81 |
Change is in Dartmouth's win chance, in points. Scores read Holy Cross, then Dartmouth. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Holy Cross 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 67-80vs FurmanDidn't cover +12.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 6L 66-95at VillanovaCovered +34.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 3L 59-103at Rhode Island
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 64.0 and allowing 92.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Holy Cross | Dartmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.0 325th | 101.6 238th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 116.7 353rd | 108.1 175th |
| Possessions a game | 70.7 196th | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.8% 297th | 51.3% 123rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.8% 324th | 50.6% 193rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.3% 211th | 19.7% 329th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.4% 341st | 33.8% 67th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 240th | 0.26 186th |
The widest gap: Dartmouth's defense (175th) against Holy Cross's offense (325th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Holy Cross 31, Dartmouth 39
- First-half margin
- Dartmouth by 7.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.6
- Projected second half
- Holy Cross 36, Dartmouth 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Holy Cross, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 48.0 allowed
- Dartmouth, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 39.0 scored, 30.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Holy Cross
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan RichardF | 31 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Tristen WilsonG | 28 | 13.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Kole HansonG | 24 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Chuck HareF | 22 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Jaelon GermanyG | 21 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Arius AlijosiusG | 20 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| John St. Germain IIIG | 20 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jude HaighF | 17 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
Dartmouth
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron McNameeG | 26 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Landon WilliamsG | 26 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Cam HiattG | 25 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Nikola AbusaraG | 23 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Dan CivelloC | 21 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Acen JimenezG | 18 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Anton StrelnikovC | 16 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Ernas ValauskasG | 16 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…