Chattanooga at Austin Peay
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at F&M Bank Arena. Chattanooga our rank 192 · 2-2; Austin Peay our rank 148 · 2-1.
Who will win Chattanooga vs Austin Peay?
The model gives Austin Peay a 73% chance to beat Chattanooga, with a projected score of Austin Peay 65, Chattanooga 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Peay | |||||
| CroskeyG · 29 min | 11.8 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 10+ 61% | |
| CharltonG · 28 min | 11.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 10+ 57% | |
| PetersonF · 22 min | 10.9 | 8.2 | 0.4 | 10+ 55% | |
| BrantonG · 30 min | 8.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 10+ 36% | |
| Chattanooga | |||||
| StovallF · 24 min | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 10+ 51% | |
| McPhersonG · 33 min | 10.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 48% | |
| GroomsG · 25 min | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 5+ 68% | |
| LedfordG · 20 min | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jim'Miyah Branton: Chattanooga 33%Austin Peay 67%
The white mark is the call with her: Austin Peay 73%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Austin Peay without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Peay | ||||
| Jim'Miyah Branton | 2.0 | 67% | −6 | 59–64 |
| Veronaye Charlton | 1.5 | 69% | −4 | 58–64 |
| Clearia Peterson | 1.2 | 70% | −3 | 58–65 |
| Jade Rucker | 0.6 | 71% | −2 | 58–65 |
| Chattanooga | ||||
| TaTianna Stovall | 1.3 | 76% | +3 | 57–66 |
| Lydia Ledford | 0.6 | 74% | +1 | 57–66 |
Change is in Austin Peay's win chance, in points. Scores read Chattanooga, then Austin Peay. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Chattanooga 2-2WLLW
- Nov 12W 75-67at N Kentucky
- Nov 8L 58-64vs Florida
- Nov 4L 50-61at Western KY
- Nov 2W 85-44vs UVA Wise
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 67.0 and allowing 59.0
Austin Peay 2-1WWL
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.3 and allowing 48.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Chattanooga | Austin Peay | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.0 195th | 91.0 164th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.3 203rd | 91.2 123rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.1 334th | 69.9 341st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.4% 181st | 45.5% 170th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.9% 80th | 47.4% 295th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 125th | 20.4% 10th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 291st | 31.0% 278th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 265th | 0.17 350th |
The widest gap: Austin Peay's defense (123rd) against Chattanooga's offense (195th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Chattanooga 27, Austin Peay 31
- First-half margin
- Austin Peay by 4.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 58.2
- Projected second half
- Chattanooga 31, Austin Peay 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 64.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Chattanooga, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 31.0 scored, 25.2 allowed
- Austin Peay, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 41.3 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Chattanooga
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Izzy McPhersonG | 33 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Ava CardG | 29 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Sarah OwonaG | 27 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Gabbie GroomsG | 25 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| TaTianna StovallF | 24 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Lydia LedfordG | 20 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| London WeaverG | 16 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Falon BedkeF | 12 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
Austin Peay
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim'Miyah BrantonG | 30 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Kiara CroskeyG | 29 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Veronaye CharltonG | 28 | 11.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Tish BlackwoodG | 25 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Clearia PetersonF | 22 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 55% | |||||
| Jade RuckerG | 21 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Brilee PriceG | 19 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Jasia RossG | 17 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Missed the last game: Andrea Guilford (15 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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