New Haven at Rhode Island
Women's · Friday, November 20, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Thomas M. Ryan Center. New Haven our rank 328 · 1-1; Rhode Island our rank 62 · 2-2.
Who will win New Haven vs Rhode Island?
The model gives Rhode Island a 99% chance to beat New Haven, with a projected score of Rhode Island 79, New Haven 47.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island | |||||
| HillG · 29 min | 14.5 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 15+ 46% | |
| StewartF · 24 min | 14.5 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 15+ 46% | |
| NewsonG · 24 min | 11.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 10+ 58% | |
| BorrellasG · 25 min | 10.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 10+ 53% | |
| New Haven | |||||
| KelleyG · 28 min | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 10+ 60% | |
| TurpinG · 25 min | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 40% | |
| McKayG · 20 min | 6.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5+ 56% | |
| Vera RamirezG · 21 min | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 5+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sophia Vital: New Haven 2%Rhode Island 98%
The white mark is the call with her: Rhode Island 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Rhode Island without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island | ||||
| Sophia Vital | 4.3 | 98% | −1 | 50–77 |
| Delanie Hill | 3.1 | 99% | 0 | 49–77 |
| Amaya Stewart | 2.8 | 99% | 0 | 49–77 |
| Martina Borrellas | 2.2 | 99% | 0 | 48–78 |
Change is in Rhode Island's win chance, in points. Scores read New Haven, then Rhode Island. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
New Haven 1-1WL
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 71.5 and allowing 63.5
Rhode Island 2-2LLWW
- Nov 12W 88-38at Wagner
- Nov 8W 82-63vs South Florida
- Nov 6L 62-76vs Columbia
- Nov 3L 64-68at West Virginia
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 74.0 and allowing 61.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| New Haven | Rhode Island | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 78.4 328th | 103.6 46th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.4 289th | 89.1 96th |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 318th | 69.7 347th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.1% 311th | 47.9% 53rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 138th | 44.2% 102nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.4% 256th | 23.2% 153rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 147th | 38.4% 10th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 242nd | 0.21 222nd |
The widest gap: Rhode Island's offense (46th) against New Haven's defense (289th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- New Haven 21, Rhode Island 39
- First-half margin
- Rhode Island by 18.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.8
- Projected second half
- New Haven 26, Rhode Island 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- New Haven, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 39.0 scored, 24.0 allowed
- Rhode Island, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 36.0 scored, 28.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
New Haven
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teaira KelleyG | 28 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Carla RamirezG | 25 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Tanavia TurpinG | 25 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Claudia Lazaro-CarrascoF | 23 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 52% | |||||
| Laura Vera RamirezG | 21 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jasmine McKayG | 20 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Simone Pugh-GreavesC | 15 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 3+ reb 55% | |||||
| Schuyler ColesG | 14 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Rhode Island
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia VitalG | 31 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 7+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Delanie HillG | 29 | 14.5 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 60% | |||||
| Martina BorrellasG | 25 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Amaya StewartF | 24 | 14.5 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Alex NewsonG | 24 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 2+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Queen IkhiuwuF | 19 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Amori JarrettG | 18 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Naiara Martinez QuintanaF | 13 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 71% to play · 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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