Kennesaw St at ETSU
Women's · Saturday, November 21, 2026, 1:30 PM ET at Freedom Hall (TN). Kennesaw St our rank 330 · 2-2; ETSU our rank 149 · 3-1.
Who will win Kennesaw St vs ETSU?
The model gives East Tennessee State a 95% chance to beat Kennesaw State, with a projected score of ETSU 69, Kennesaw St 47.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETSU | |||||
| DesrochesG · 24 min | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 15+ 35% | |
| McAmisG · 27 min | 11.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 10+ 56% | |
| NelsonG · 28 min | 10.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 10+ 51% | |
| LopezG · 31 min | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 10+ 48% | |
| Kennesaw St | |||||
| NicholsG · 27 min | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 32% | |
| FlowersG · 30 min | 6.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 5+ 63% | |
| BershersF · 23 min | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 5+ 50% | |
| JenkinsG · 20 min | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 5+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaidyn Harper: Kennesaw St 6%ETSU 94%
The white mark is the call with her: ETSU 95%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | ETSU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETSU | ||||
| Jaidyn Harper | 1.5 | 94% | −1 | 48–68 |
| Anala Nelson | 1.3 | 94% | −1 | 48–68 |
| Daniela Lopez | 1.1 | 95% | 0 | 48–68 |
| Lucia France | 1.1 | 95% | 0 | 48–68 |
| Kennesaw St | ||||
| Tracey Bershers | 0.7 | 96% | +1 | 47–69 |
Change is in ETSU's win chance, in points. Scores read Kennesaw St, then ETSU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Kennesaw St 2-2WWLL
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 54.2 and allowing 57.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Kennesaw St | ETSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 75.5 352nd | 90.0 178th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.8 236th | 90.3 114th |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 200th | 69.6 350th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.3% 334th | 45.5% 169th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.6% 250th | 45.4% 169th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.9% 320th | 23.6% 196th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.8% 346th | 35.0% 80th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 170th | 0.19 285th |
The widest gap: ETSU's defense (114th) against Kennesaw St's offense (352nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Kennesaw St 21, ETSU 34
- First-half margin
- ETSU by 12.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 55.0
- Projected second half
- Kennesaw St 26, ETSU 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 61.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Kennesaw St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 29.8 scored, 28.5 allowed
- ETSU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 31.0 scored, 30.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Kennesaw St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley TalbertG | 30 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Kaelyn FlowersG | 30 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ ast 57% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Shania NicholsG | 27 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Tracey BershersF | 23 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Kayla SullivanF | 20 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Arissa JenkinsG | 20 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Madyson ElliottG | 16 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Cameron WadeG | 16 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Missed the last game: Madyson Elliott (19 min a game).
ETSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniela LopezG | 31 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Anala NelsonG | 28 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Emmah McAmisG | 27 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Sydney-James DesrochesG | 24 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Lucia FranceC | 21 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Lucy HoodG | 20 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 37% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Carmen RichardsonG | 20 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| SaBreya MonsantoG | 16 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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