Who will win Hofstra vs Penn?
The model gives Pennsylvania a 94% chance to beat Hofstra, with a projected score of Penn 73, Hofstra 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Penn | |||||
| NjikeC · 26 min | 12.9 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 15+ 36% | |
| ThatcherG · 32 min | 12.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 10+ 64% | |
| GayleG · 29 min | 12.1 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 10+ 63% | |
| SuttleG · 28 min | 10.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 10+ 51% | |
 Hofstra | |||||
| JonesPG · 30 min | 9.7 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 10+ 46% | |
| KarimG · 28 min | 8.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 40% | |
| CedanoG · 26 min | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 5+ 63% | |
| MitchellG · 22 min | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Katie Collins: Hofstra 9%Penn 91%
The white mark is the call with her: Penn 94%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Penn without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn | ||||
| Katie Collins | 2.5 | 91% | −3 | 55–72 |
| Tina Njike | 2.5 | 91% | −3 | 55–72 |
| Mataya Gayle | 1.9 | 92% | −2 | 55–72 |
| Brooke Suttle | 1.5 | 93% | −1 | 54–73 |
Change is in Penn's win chance, in points. Scores read Hofstra, then Penn. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Hofstra 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 58-54vs Coppin St
- Nov 7W 75-44vs Queens (NY)
- Nov 2L 65-80at Georgia Tech
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 66.0 and allowing 59.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Hofstra | Penn | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.4 287th | 102.0 61st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.8 187th | 93.8 169th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 327th | 69.5 352nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.6% 168th | 48.3% 40th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.4% 236th | 45.9% 209th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.4% 303rd | 21.5% 35th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.2% 211th | 34.7% 91st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 336th | 0.17 352nd |
The widest gap: Penn's offense (61st) against Hofstra's defense (187th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Hofstra 24, Penn 36
- First-half margin
- Penn by 11.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.3
- Projected second half
- Hofstra 29, Penn 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Hofstra, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.3 scored, 32.7 allowed
- Penn, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 38.0 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Hofstra
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel JonesPG | 30 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Ema KarimG | 28 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Kelian CedanoG | 26 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Paloma Garcia RosadoPG | 26 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Comari MitchellG | 22 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Felicia JacobsF | 21 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Allie BroadusF | 17 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Michaela HodgeC | 16 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 47% | |||||
Penn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel ThatcherG | 32 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 54% | |||||
| Katie CollinsF | 30 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Mataya GayleG | 29 | 12.1 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Brooke SuttleG | 28 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Tina NjikeC | 26 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Gabriella KelleyF | 14 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Ashna TambeG | 11 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Christina PhamG | 11 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 22% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…