Who will win Syracuse vs Wisconsin?
The model gives Wisconsin a 53% chance to beat Syracuse, with a projected score of Wisconsin 71, Syracuse 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wisconsin | |||||
| MallegniG · 25 min | 13.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 15+ 40% | |
| DealG · 26 min | 11.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 61% | |
| ShepleeG · 23 min | 9.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 44% | |
| CourthiauG · 25 min | 7.8 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 32% | |
 Syracuse | |||||
| IzojeC · 28 min | 17.4 | 9.3 | 1.3 | 15+ 63% | |
| SkinnerG · 21 min | 10.5 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 10+ 52% | |
| RodriguezG · 24 min | 9.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 10+ 45% | |
| RambusF · 21 min | 8.6 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 10+ 38% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Addie Deal: Syracuse 60%Wisconsin 40%
The white mark is the call with her: Wisconsin 53%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Wisconsin without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | ||||
| Addie Deal | 3.9 | 40% | −13 | 71–69 |
| Teagan Mallegni | 3.7 | 40% | −13 | 71–69 |
| Shay Bollin | 2.7 | 44% | −9 | 71–69 |
| Laci Steele | 2.5 | 45% | −8 | 71–69 |
| Syracuse | ||||
| Uche Izoje | 5.1 | 72% | +19 | 67–73 |
| Emely Rodriguez | 2.7 | 64% | +11 | 68–72 |
| Sarah Rambus | 2.4 | 63% | +10 | 68–72 |
| Jaleesa Molina | 1.9 | 61% | +8 | 68–71 |
Change is in Wisconsin's win chance, in points. Scores read Syracuse, then Wisconsin. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Syracuse 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 79.0 and allowing 51.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Syracuse | Wisconsin | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.8 62nd | 104.8 41st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 83.7 53rd | 85.3 58th |
| Possessions a game | 73.1 92nd | 72.6 129th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.4% 252nd | 48.7% 29th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.1% 98th | 44.9% 144th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.1% 68th | 22.0% 58th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.2% 73rd | 32.6% 192nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.17 346th | 0.18 343rd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Syracuse 33, Wisconsin 33
- First-half margin
- Wisconsin by 0.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.4
- Projected second half
- Syracuse 37, Wisconsin 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Syracuse, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.3 scored, 24.0 allowed
- Wisconsin, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.2 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Syracuse
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uche IzojeC | 28 | 17.4 | 9.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 10+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Emely RodriguezG | 24 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Sarah RambusF | 21 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Tyi SkinnerG | 21 | 10.5 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 35% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Keira ScottF | 21 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Jaleesa MolinaF | 18 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Celaine RiccoF | 14 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Angelica VelezG | 13 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 31% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
Wisconsin
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addie DealG | 26 | 11.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Alicia CourthiauG | 25 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Teagan MallegniG | 25 | 13.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Adaline ShepleeG | 23 | 9.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Laci SteeleG | 21 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Shay BollinG | 20 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Nikki KersteinPG | 19 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Caia RoseG | 18 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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