Xavier v Santa Clara
Women's · Thursday, November 26, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Elridge Blake Sports and Fitness Center. Xavier our rank 108 · 3-0; Santa Clara our rank 69 · 3-0.
Who will win Xavier vs Santa Clara?
The model gives Santa Clara a 71% chance to beat Xavier, with a projected score of Santa Clara 75, Xavier 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | |||||
| GlanceyF · 27 min | 15.9 | 8.0 | 1.6 | 15+ 54% | |
| JonesG · 27 min | 15.4 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 15+ 51% | |
| SchmidtF · 29 min | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 63% | |
| FoxG · 27 min | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 10+ 33% | |
| Xavier | |||||
| JeromeG · 27 min | 13.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 15+ 40% | |
| RanG · 26 min | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 57% | |
| KanervaG · 34 min | 10.6 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 10+ 52% | |
| Carter-HartleyF · 24 min | 7.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sophie Glancey: Xavier 39%Santa Clara 61%
The white mark is the call with her: Santa Clara 71%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Santa Clara without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | ||||
| Sophie Glancey | 3.5 | 61% | −10 | 70–74 |
| Maia Jones | 3.0 | 62% | −9 | 70–74 |
| Ava Schmidt | 2.9 | 62% | −9 | 70–74 |
| Kylee Fox | 1.9 | 65% | −6 | 70–74 |
| Xavier | ||||
| Diawna Carter-Hartley | 1.9 | 76% | +5 | 68–76 |
| Mya Moore | 1.6 | 75% | +4 | 68–76 |
| Maria Anais Rodriguez | 1.5 | 75% | +4 | 68–76 |
| Meri Kanerva | 1.3 | 74% | +3 | 68–76 |
Change is in Santa Clara's win chance, in points. Scores read Xavier, then Santa Clara. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Xavier 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 78.7 and allowing 65.0
Santa Clara 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 89-70at Long Beach St
- Nov 7W 64-62at Utah Valley
- Nov 2W 84-50at Wyoming
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 79.0 and allowing 60.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Xavier | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.9 100th | 102.0 59th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.6 143rd | 89.5 99th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 74.3 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 16th | 47.3% 77th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 134th | 43.3% 56th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.6% 103rd | 20.9% 14th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.0% 83rd | 35.8% 54th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 128th | 0.21 172nd |
The widest gap: Santa Clara's offense (59th) against Xavier's defense (143rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Xavier 32, Santa Clara 36
- First-half margin
- Santa Clara by 3.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.3
- Projected second half
- Xavier 36, Santa Clara 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Xavier, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 32.0 allowed
- Santa Clara, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.3 scored, 30.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Xavier
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meri KanervaG | 34 | 10.6 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 55% · 5+ ast 45% | |||||
| Lucile JeromeG | 27 | 13.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Kejia RanG | 26 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Diawna Carter-HartleyF | 24 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Maria Anais RodriguezF | 21 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Mya MooreF | 16 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 58% | |||||
| Kodee Williams-SefoG | 15 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Hila KarshG | 14 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Santa Clara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava SchmidtF | 29 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Aniya HookerG | 28 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Sophie GlanceyF | 27 | 15.9 | 8.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 8+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Maia JonesG | 27 | 15.4 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Kylee FoxG | 27 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Delainey MillerG | 19 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Kate SchatG | 17 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Emma NajjumaC | 16 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 7+ reb 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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