Cincinnati v Miami OH
Women's · Thursday, November 26, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya. Cincinnati our rank 96 · 2-1; Miami OH our rank 73 · 4-0.
Who will win Cincinnati vs Miami OH?
The model gives Miami (OH) a 57% chance to beat Cincinnati, with a projected score of Miami OH 64, Cincinnati 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami OH | |||||
| LaMendolaF · 26 min | 11.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 10+ 61% | |
| TretterF · 23 min | 10.2 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 49% | |
| BaxterG · 24 min | 9.8 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 10+ 47% | |
| ZartmanG · 24 min | 8.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 38% | |
| Cincinnati | |||||
| DeVillaseeG · 30 min | 13.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 15+ 42% | |
| JahG · 26 min | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 51% | |
| BullardC · 17 min | 6.6 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 5+ 62% | |
| JonesG · 26 min | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Amber Tretter: Cincinnati 54%Miami OH 46%
The white mark is the call with her: Miami OH 57%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Miami OH without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami OH | ||||
| Amber Tretter | 3.3 | 46% | −11 | 64–63 |
| Julianna LaMendola | 2.7 | 48% | −9 | 64–63 |
| Addison Baxter | 2.0 | 50% | −7 | 63–63 |
| Núria Jurjo | 1.9 | 51% | −6 | 63–63 |
| Cincinnati | ||||
| Caliyah DeVillasee | 3.0 | 66% | +9 | 61–66 |
| Naomi Benson | 1.5 | 62% | +5 | 62–65 |
| Jade Jones | 1.4 | 61% | +4 | 62–65 |
| Sahnya Jah | 1.2 | 61% | +4 | 62–65 |
Change is in Miami OH's win chance, in points. Scores read Cincinnati, then Miami OH. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Cincinnati 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 56-67vs Saint Joseph's
- Nov 7W 76-53vs Penn State
- Nov 4W 66-58vs East Texas A&M
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 66.0 and allowing 59.3
Miami OH 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 106-45vs Mount Vernon Nazarene
- Nov 8W 92-37vs Bellarmine
- Nov 5W 75-52at SE Missouri
- Nov 2W 59-52vs James Madison
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 46.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Cincinnati | Miami OH | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.2 98th | 92.4 144th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.6 103rd | 80.9 25th |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 200th | 72.8 110th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.3% 302nd | 47.2% 85th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 162nd | 41.7% 20th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.9% 56th | 24.2% 244th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 216th | 32.1% 220th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 282nd | 0.20 249th |
The widest gap: Miami OH's defense (25th) against Cincinnati's offense (98th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Cincinnati 29, Miami OH 31
- First-half margin
- Miami OH by 1.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.1
- Projected second half
- Cincinnati 33, Miami OH 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Cincinnati, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.3 scored, 27.7 allowed
- Miami OH, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 43.5 scored, 21.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Cincinnati
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caliyah DeVillaseeG | 30 | 13.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 60% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Jade JonesG | 26 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Sahnya JahG | 26 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Reagan JacksonG | 18 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 31% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Naomi BensonF | 18 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 48% | |||||
| Amber BullardC | 17 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 55% | |||||
| Joya CrawfordG | 17 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Dee AlexanderF | 15 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
Miami OH
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna LaMendolaF | 26 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Núria JurjoG | 24 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Brooke ZartmanG | 24 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Addison BaxterG | 24 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Amber TretterF | 23 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Lucía Martínez LópezG | 20 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Amber ScaliaG | 20 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 51% to play · 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Dominika UllmannG | 13 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Missed the last game: Amber Scalia (22 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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