Who will win Davidson vs Florida?
The model gives Florida a 59% chance to beat Davidson, with a projected score of Florida 71, Davidson 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Florida | |||||
| McMillerG · 37 min | 22.5 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 20+ 62% | |
| IwuchukwuF · 28 min | 11.9 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 10+ 61% | |
| HarrisG · 32 min | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 10+ 61% | |
| WeathersbyF · 24 min | 9.3 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 10+ 43% | |
 Davidson | |||||
| DonovanG · 30 min | 15.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 15+ 52% | |
| BruyndoncxG · 32 min | 14.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 15+ 43% | |
| BessellG · 26 min | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 5+ 62% | |
| Alvarez CastellanosG · 29 min | 5.0 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 5+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kiyomi McMiller: Davidson 56%Florida 44%
The white mark is the call with her: Florida 59%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Florida without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | ||||
| Kiyomi McMiller | 4.4 | 44% | −15 | 71–69 |
| Vanessa Harris | 3.0 | 49% | −10 | 70–69 |
| Vivian Iwuchukwu | 3.0 | 49% | −10 | 70–70 |
| Jade Weathersby | 2.7 | 50% | −9 | 70–70 |
| Davidson | ||||
| Katie Donovan | 3.1 | 68% | +9 | 67–73 |
| Kyra Bruyndoncx | 2.6 | 67% | +8 | 67–72 |
| Ines Garcia Monje | 2.1 | 65% | +6 | 67–72 |
| Emilie Bessell | 2.0 | 65% | +6 | 67–72 |
Change is in Florida's win chance, in points. Scores read Davidson, then Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Davidson 1-3LLWL
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 67.2 and allowing 64.2
Florida 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 70-72vs South Florida
- Nov 8W 64-58at Chattanooga
- Nov 5W 95-65vs UCF
- Nov 2W 83-60vs Bucknell
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 78.0 and allowing 63.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Davidson | Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.2 66th | 104.1 42nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.5 85th | 88.1 78th |
| Possessions a game | 70.3 327th | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.7% 226th | 47.6% 64th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.8% 306th | 45.3% 162nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.0% 20th | 21.7% 48th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 226th | 32.0% 225th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 147th | 0.21 203rd |
The widest gap: Florida's offense (42nd) against Davidson's defense (85th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Davidson 32, Florida 34
- First-half margin
- Florida by 1.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Projected second half
- Davidson 36, Florida 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Davidson, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 37.2 scored, 29.8 allowed
- Florida, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 35.8 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Davidson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyra BruyndoncxG | 32 | 14.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Katie DonovanG | 30 | 15.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 2+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Elena Alvarez CastellanosG | 29 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 61% · 4+ ast 55% | |||||
| Emilie BessellG | 26 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ines Garcia MonjeF | 23 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Sharni ReisingerG | 15 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Asha NightingaleF | 14 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Jasmine TimmersonG | 13 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiyomi McMillerG | 37 | 22.5 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 20+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Moriah MurrayG | 33 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Vanessa HarrisG | 32 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Vivian IwuchukwuF | 28 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Jordan JonesG | 25 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jade WeathersbyF | 24 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Aurora AlmonF | 14 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 5+ reb 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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