Minnesota v Missouri St
Women's · Thursday, November 26, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya. Minnesota AP 18, our rank 15 · 3-0; Missouri St our rank 55 · 3-0.
Who will win Minnesota vs Missouri St?
The model gives Minnesota a 86% chance to beat Missouri State, with a projected score of Minnesota 76, Missouri St 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 10:30 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | |||||
| GrocholskiG · 30 min | 14.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 15+ 45% | |
| MerkleC · 15 min | 11.3 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 10+ 58% | |
| HarmonG · 25 min | 10.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 10+ 53% | |
| BraunG · 29 min | 10.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 10+ 53% | |
| Missouri St | |||||
| BekemeierG · 24 min | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 56% | |
| DouglasF · 22 min | 9.6 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 45% | |
| WashingtonF · 20 min | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 5+ 62% | |
| MaysG · 22 min | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Grace Grocholski: Minnesota 71%Missouri St 29%
The white mark is the call with her: Minnesota 86%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Minnesota without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | ||||
| Grace Grocholski | 6.6 | 71% | −15 | 72–66 |
| Mara Braun | 5.8 | 73% | −13 | 73–65 |
| Gracie Merkle | 3.7 | 79% | −7 | 74–64 |
| Leah Harmon | 3.4 | 79% | −7 | 74–64 |
| Missouri St | ||||
| Lainie Douglas | 3.4 | 92% | +6 | 77–61 |
| Kaemyn Bekemeier | 3.1 | 91% | +5 | 77–61 |
| Maiesha Washington | 2.2 | 90% | +4 | 77–61 |
| Hannah Linthacum | 1.9 | 89% | +3 | 77–61 |
Change is in Minnesota's win chance, in points. Scores read Minnesota, then Missouri St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Minnesota 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 86-47vs Southern
- Nov 7W 87-79at MarquetteDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 134.5
- Nov 2W 82-62vs Harvard
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 85.0 and allowing 62.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Missouri St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 76-48at Wichita St
- Nov 7W 72-37at Wyoming
- Nov 2W 77-40vs SE Missouri
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 75.0 and allowing 41.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Minnesota | Missouri St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.4 6th | 98.8 83rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.5 40th | 81.9 34th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 272nd | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.5% 36th | 46.7% 111th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.7% 254th | 41.1% 12th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.3% 171st | 22.4% 91st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 40.2% 3rd | 37.6% 22nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 39th | 0.23 79th |
The widest gap: Minnesota's defense (40th) against Missouri St's offense (83rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Minnesota 37, Missouri St 29
- First-half margin
- Minnesota by 7.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.4
- Projected second half
- Minnesota 39, Missouri St 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Minnesota, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 29.0 allowed
- Missouri St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 34.3 scored, 23.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Minnesota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace GrocholskiG | 30 | 14.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Mara BraunG | 29 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Natalie KussowG | 26 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Leah HarmonG | 25 | 10.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 2+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Tayla ThomasF | 22 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Tori OehrleinG | 16 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Gracie MerkleC | 15 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Kennedy KlickG | 12 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 2+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 30% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
Missouri St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaemyn BekemeierG | 24 | 11.1 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Macie MaysG | 22 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Landon ForbesG | 22 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Lainie DouglasF | 22 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Hannah LinthacumF | 20 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 51% | |||||
| Maiesha WashingtonF | 20 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Nevaeh LuciousF | 16 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 49% | |||||
| JaNyla BushG | 15 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…